2015 May 30 Saturday
Heather Mac Donald On Reversal In Crime Trends

The long national decline in crime rates has bottomed and and started reversing?

Gun violence is up more than 60% compared with this time last year, according to Baltimore police, with 32 shootings over Memorial Day weekend. May has been the most violent month the city has seen in 15 years.

In Milwaukee, homicides were up 180% by May 17 over the same period the previous year. Through April, shootings in St. Louis were up 39%, robberies 43%, and homicides 25%.

She lists other cities with rising crime rates. Click thru and read the extent of it. Then she blames anti-cop messages from the media, Obama Administration, and some state and local governments. This seems plausible. The elites are pushing to slash incarceration rates (in spite of recidivism rate data) and state governments, partly due to financial woes, have already begun locking up fewer people starting about 6 years ago. But the reversal in crime rates in the most pathological cities happened so suddenly it must be a reaction to the rhetoric and legal threats to cops flowing from elite and media reaction to Ferguson and Baltimore. The cops are intimidated and fear prosecution for how they have to deal with dangerous people. The criminals are emboldened.

The upside: Some people will be enlightened by the resulting crime wave. Our elites have accidentally or intentionally initiated an experiment that causes a big pull-back by police and have intentionally initiated an experiment to reduce incarceration rates. The results will be educational.

Do not become a victim of the experiment. Think about how this impacts you personally and how it impacts friends and family. Become more careful about where you choose to live and where you choose to visit. Do not put your life at risk.

Update:Click thru to see 10 cities where you shouldn't live. The only surprise for me was Little Rock, Arkansas. Didn't know it was that violent.

Nationwide, 368 violent crimes were reported for every 100,000 people in 2013. Such crimes include murder, rape, aggravated assault, and robbery. In America’s 10 most dangerous cities, there were more than 1,300 violent crimes per 100,000 residents.

If you read this blog I'm going to guess you live in a relatively low crime area that is below the national average. Why do I guess that? I expect my readers are better educated than the average American and have the sense to choose to live in better neighborhoods.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2015 May 30 11:41 AM 

Jim said at May 30, 2015 4:09 PM:

We're the Guinea Pigs in this experiment.

Mike Street Station said at June 2, 2015 6:25 AM:

There does seem to be a common characteristic to these cities. I just can't put my finger on it.

WJ said at June 2, 2015 11:01 PM:

Data for "cities" can be enormously misleading, because the data for the cities can cover widely varying percentages of the metro population. Little Rock has less than 200,000 people. Little Rock Metro has over 700,000. Detroit has less than 700,000 people. Detroit Metro has over 5 million. Meanwhile Memphis (pop. 646,000; 62.6% black) has about half of its metro area population (1.37 million), and accounts for over 70% of its home county's population, which is 52.1% black.

In most cases what you really want and need to know is what the metro area is like, though a rotting core city is bad no matter what the rest of the metro area is like. And hint: if a very large share of the core city is black, it's gunna be very hard to fix.

Cracker, please said at June 6, 2015 10:57 AM:

What are the most dangerous places for white people, and what are the most dangerous places for middle or upperclass people? I bet a lot more Marketwatch and WSJ readers would like to know that statistic, though it would be such a horrible thing to think, OMG, taboo even. Can that be broken out by the same data?

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