2015 May 08 Friday
With 36.8% Of Vote Tories Got Over Half Of Parliament Seats

While the Conservatives in Britain just won over half the seats in the British Parliament they did this with just 36.8% of the vote. An amazing consequence of the First Past The Post voting system. Between them Conservatives and Labour won about 67% of the vote. So about a third of the UK population voted for other parties.

While the UK Independence Party only has 1 Parliament seat it went from about 3% in the 2010 vote to almost 13% in the 2015 vote. The big gain by the UKIP of about 10% is the more amazing story of this election. Can the UKIP start winning majorities in some areas and get Parliament seats in the next election?

Will the Conservatives stay in the EU? Give the UK voters a chance to vote to exit the EU? Will the Conservatives cut back on immigration?

Andrew Stuttaford on "shy Tories":

Where did the pollsters go wrong? Probably by underestimating the amount of “shy Tories” that there are. Brits should pause to think of what it says about the country’s intellectual climate that so many voters on one side of the aisle are unwilling to disclose their voting preferences.

My guess is that if the people on the British Left stop to think about how well they've done in making conservatives afraid to express their views that they'll feel very self congratulatory. How thrilling to marginalize and delegitimatize your enemy.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2015 May 08 09:06 PM 


Comments
bob sykes said at May 9, 2015 4:42 AM:

The US and likely the whole Anglosphere uses the same system. Not all votes count equally.

Stephen said at May 9, 2015 6:19 AM:

AU has preferential voting. The two big parties hate it because it disrupts their duopoly.

Dave said at May 9, 2015 1:21 PM:

But actually other parties had more advantage than the main two with the current system.
1.45 million votes, 56 MP's: Scottish National Party (SNP)
0.18 million votes, 8 MP's!: Democratic Unionist Party (Northern Ireland)
0.18 million votes, 3 MP's: Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales)

2.5 million votes, 8 MP's for the Liberal Democrats previously considered one of the main 3 parties.

3.88 m votes, 1 MP for UKIP.

Britain has a fk'd up system, with no common size/population between the different constituencies, making some odd results.
Its been known for a long time that Scots are over represented in number of MP's per population compared to the rest but no one does anything about it for fear of stoking nationalism, And because Scotland used to go almost 100% Labour so it gave them a huge advantage.

UKIP easily came 3rd in vote share.

Where I am from, I voted UKIP who came second, but the Conservative guy got 57%, with 28,000+ votes in some of the Labour areas, they win with much smaller numbers.

Wolf-Dog said at May 9, 2015 3:40 PM:

UK has a very good reason to exit the EU (at least the free trade zone) because according to the table below, it has an annual trade deficit of $47 billion with Germany.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

Since the GDP of UK ($2.9 trillion) is 6 times smaller than that of the US ($17 trillion), the magnitude of the British trade deficit against Germany as a percentage of its GDP is comparable to that of the US and China ($315 billion), which is approximately 1.7 % of the American GDP.

But UK cannot tolerate this kind of annual trade deficit against Germany in the long run because the unlike the US dollar, the British pound does not have the unique status of global reserve currency.

Let us note that France also has approximately the same trade deficit with Germany, and the French GDP is also approximately the same as that of the UK. And unlike UK, France does not even have its own currency to devalue, which makes its trade deficit against Germany even worse.

Thus both the UK and France have strong reasons to exit at least the free trade zone of the EU. This is likely to happen within a decade, and at that stage the EU would no longer what it is now, it would be like three decades ago.

Dave said at May 14, 2015 2:47 AM:

Its not necessarily shy Tories.

The Pollsters are more likely to get in contact with Labour supporters as the Conservatives are more likely to be small business owners and have less time. Of course the pollsters would claim to weight these factors, whatever..


We had some TV 'debates' before the election, the first few were where TV political commentators asked the questions, the last one was where the public got to talk directly to the main three parties.
It was good as it clearly showed the difference between the pundits and public. Particularly in that the labour cheerleading pundits thought the public had a very short memory with regard to the last Labour government, but when the public got chance to speak that turned out not to be the case.
I think thats why the political class got it all wrong.

Stephen said at May 14, 2015 4:20 PM:

Wolfdog said:

Since the GDP of UK ($2.9 trillion) is 6 times smaller than that of the US ($17 trillion), the magnitude of the British trade deficit against Germany as a percentage of its GDP is comparable to that of the US and China ($315 billion), which is approximately 1.7 % of the American GDP.

I don't get this point. Why is a trade deficit between Britain and Germany a reason for Britain to exit the EU? The UK manages its own currency, so being in or out of the EU is irrelevant.

Rev. Right said at May 15, 2015 6:03 PM:

"How thrilling to marginalize and delegitimatize your enemy."

Ask the Tea Party how it feels from the other end.


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