2015 January 30 Friday
Mitt Romney Does Not Get Enough Elite Support
Why did Mitt drop out of the race? I'll take a guess: Jeb Bush gets more billionaire support than Mitt Romney. Jeb's message is agreeable to the elite (very pro-immigration) and disagreeable to the rank-and-file (anti-immigration, especially against masses of high school drop-outs). Naturally that means Jeb's candidacy is going forward with lots of bucks flowing in.
It was not a given that Mr. Bush would receive a warm enough reception from the G.O.P. elite to dissuade Mr. Romney. Yes, Mr. Bush is a scion of the establishment and the potential inheritor of a vast network tied to his brother and father. But he also hadnít been elected since 2002; his surname is potentially a disadvantage in the general election; and his message ó focused on issues like immigration and education ó has been somewhat out of touch with the mainstream of his party.
Since Jeb Bush is unappealing to the Republican base I figure support for him helps Hillary Clinton. The prospect of the two of those two as the nominees is pretty repelling.
What I want to know: Have the billionaires already decided who should be the next US President? If so, couldn't they just tell us and save us the trouble of having to pretend we have a voice in the result? The press could spend their time reporting on something else instead. Then again, that'd just get them into other mischief, say more hoaxes about frat boys behaving badly. Are election stories better or worse than the likely Mitt alternatives?
By Randall Parker at 2015 January 30 07:06 PM
The prospect of another Bush-Clinton election is indeed disgusting. Many Democrats I know are not enthusiastic about Hillary but think she's inevitable. Her health is a real wild card - who knows if she'll be able to withstand the rigors of a long campaign? A lot of Republicans find the Bushes revolting. Jeb may have the dollars, but whether he will be able to get the votes in the hotly contested primaries remains to be seen.
You can't elected president unless you can do three things:
1 Raise money (so you have to get the big donors of your party to like you).
2 Win the nomination (so you have to get the true believers and partisans in your party to vote for you).
3 Win the election (so you have to get most of your party's voters to cast votes, and you need to get some swing votes).
You can think of each of these as a filter. The successful people had to pass all three filters somehow. If the demands of the donors are inconsistent with what will get the true believers to vote for you, or if gettting the nomination requires moving so far right or left that lots of your natural voters stay home on election day, you are screwed.
Everyone spends way too much time talking about what politicians believe. (Mostly, they believe that they want to be president more than anything--that's another filter.) This is a mistake. The interesting question is what filters they have to pass through to get elected. Does Mitt Romney really personally oppose abortion? Does Hillary Clinton really feel comfortable with gay marriage? Does Rand Paul really love Israel?
Who knows? Who cares? The fact is, all three candidates *have* to hold those positions, or they'll get stopped by one of those filters and we won't hear any more of them.
Does it really matter if either Clinton or Bush get elected? Won't the elites win either way? Rush Limbaugh had a great segment on this back in December. The golden ticket would be Bush and Clinton, together (!!) They'd be interchangeable so it wouldn't really matter who was President or VP, if one couldn't perform their duty the other would take their place without missing a step. I predict massive voter tune-out if we have a Bush v. Hillary contest. Its hard to think that Bush could get through the primaries, hopefully he'll end up as another Giuliani or Christie. What rapacious, evil families the Bushes and Clintons are to foist another set of these creatures upon us and the world.
Mitt dropped out just a few days after his "secret" meeting with Jeb, so I really would have liked to have been a fly on the wall of that meeting.
This may be an election in which money doesn't carry the day. What good does it do Jeb if he can run wall to wall ads in Iowa, but still doesn't generate any votes or interest? Even the part of the base who's not automatically repelled by the dynastic implications of another Bush just are not interested in him. Sheldon Adelson kept pouring money into Newt Gingrich's primary campaign and although it kept him in the race, it didn't garner him votes. Jeb could go the distance and still not generate enough votes to win the nomination.
Actually, the mainstream masses of the populace have already decided who will be the next president.
They have subconsciously decided it will be whoever the elites choose for them.