2014 December 01 Monday
Vietnamization Not Working In Afghanistan
Will Kabul fall like Saigon?
Afghan security forces say that if they kept getting as much air power they'd be able to keep down the Taliban. That's after about 13 years of trying to win and build a nation-state that can defend itself against the Taliban. Still hasn't worked.
US policy in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya is a failure. It isn't going to start becoming a success.
By Randall Parker at 2014 December 01 10:08 PM
The Taliban are an indigenous popular movement and will displace the current regime as soon as we're gone. Our entire foreign policy in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia is mere political and physical vandalism and is doomed to failure. It will follow us home, and we will have our own native jihadis.
Randall Parker: "Will Kabul fall like Saigon? "
The question is not if Kabul will fall like Saigon, but if it will fall like Saigon or Pnom Penh. In comparison to the atrocities that Khmer Rouge committed after the fall of Pnom Penh, the fall of Saigon was a relatively peaceful event.
Bob Sykes: "Our entire foreign policy in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia is mere political and physical vandalism and is doomed to failure. It will follow us home, and we will have our own native jihadis.
Although it is clear that our foreign policy in general is failure, I don't understand the second part of your statement that we will have our own native Jihadis. Currently less than 1 % of the US population is Muslim, and this percentage includes that African Americans who have been converting to Islam. In many prisons, some disgruntled groups who see themselves as victims, are converting to Islam. But do you have any statistics about how many Americans are converting to Islam every year? In the EU, thousands of disgruntled native Europeans have actually converted to Islam, but I am not sure this is primarily because of the military actions that NATO is taking in Muslim countries, the conversions are probably happening due to the economic inequalities and social problems that are local in Europe and North America.
In any case, the larger European Muslim population will certainly be influenced by the Jihadi movements that are flourishing in the Middle East. But let us not forget the fact that although we can argue that Nazis became popular in Germany due to the oppressive British and French policies that strangled Germany after World War I, this does not change the fact ultimately that Nazism had to be fought regardless of the mistakes that allowed them to come to power in Germany.
Dear Randall: It will take a while, but virtually all of our recent African immigrants are Muslim, and we have long been home to Nation of Islam, which, while heretical from a Saudi viewpoint, is self-proclaimed Muslim. And we have already had a number of jihadist terror events, although they have been mostly lone wolf actions. But it wouldn't take more that a few people to take down the Mall of America, so I expect things to get worse.
A contributing factor is the total alienation of our black underclass and its seething hatred of all things white. They will prove to be a fertile recruiting ground for jihad.
Talibans are not an indigenous movement of Afghanistan.
They were created and funded by ISI (Pakistan Secret Service) and without Pakistan funding they would crumble in just few months.
There is no way to win against the Talibans until their bases int he Tribal Area of Pakistan are not erased and their funding is destroyed forever.
Afghanistan can not defend itself from Talibans because it is not economically self-sufficient. It doesn't generate enough taxes to fund a serious army able to keep out Pakistan funded Talibans (not to tell about Iran supported groups).
The native jihadis are worth really nothing: they are a phenomenon existing only because there is Islamic charities from the Gulf and Pakistan financing Da'Wa (proselytism). Take away their financing and they disappear like snow in the Sahara.
There is no way a group proselytizing inside jails (and not to young repressed people unjustly incarcerated) can take any power. They would be crushed by governments without any problem and with a cheering population.
Actually, comparing what's going to happen in Kabul is an insult to the ARVN/South Vietnamese, some of whom fought heroically against the Communists, until the Leftists in Congress cut off their arms supplies. I'll be really surprised if the ANA does nearly as well...