2014 October 11 Saturday
Turkish Deep State: Kobani As Way To Break Peace Process

With Daesh (no, not ISIS or ISIL) about to completely overrun Kobani the question being debated is why Turkey is sitting by and letting it happen. One obvious reason is that the Turks are happy to see the Kurds defeated by forces that they'd rather have as neighbors. But Turkish intelligence could have another motive as well: violent street protests by Kurds in Turkey could provide the Deep State the rationale it needs to kill an internal peace process to make a deal with the Kurds in Turkey. So the Deep State can then crush PKK and other Kurdish nationalist groups in Turkey.

If the Turkish government can crush the Kurds in Turkey and then have ISIS crush Kurds in Syria then Turkey would be able to limit the emergence of a Kurdish state to the Kurdish region of Iraq and even that state might be vulnerable to being crushed by the Turks and Iraqi Arabs some day.

What else does Turkey want? To crush Assad in Damascus and put a Sunni Arab Islamic government in power in Damascus. Turkey, our NATO ally. Another of our big allies in the region: Saudi Arabia whose school textbooks find great favor with the Daesh Caliphate. Are the Persians really so bad in comparison? Or the Russians? Even Joe Biden sees the problem with our supposed allies.

The Syrian Kurds are better off with a weak (too weak to bother them) Bashar Assad in power in Damascus.

Modest proposal for the Kurds: Find some fierce Chechens with great tactical talents to recruit to your cause. Or welcome some Russian special forces "on vacation" for an extended visit to do extensive testing of Russian military equipment. The Russians could hone their skills fighting the Chechens in Daesh.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2014 October 11 11:51 AM 

Jim said at October 11, 2014 6:33 PM:

A Kurdish state would destroy Turkey. The Turks are not going to accept that quietly. By the way if Turkey becomes a failed state Russian influence in the Middle East will increase greatly. Meanwhile Libya descends further into chaos. We have screwed up massively.

Jim said at October 11, 2014 6:36 PM:

A Kurdish state will destroy Turkey. The Turks aren't going to accept that.

Wolf-Dog said at October 11, 2014 11:26 PM:

Even without a Kurdish state, the ethnic Kurds who are citizens of Turkey (who comprise 20 % of the Turkish population) will reach a much higher percentage because their birth rate exceeds that of the ethnic Turks. Within a generation this can be a disaster for Turkey, and the only alternative for the survival of the Turkish state might be to expand as in the Ottoman Empire. If the Arab civilization collapses, the Turkish leadership might actually be a good thing even for the Arabs, since there will at least be some law and order in the region. If Turkey and Israel can cut a deal and reach an accommodation to make the Arabs accept the existence of Israel, this can be a win-win-win solution for both the Arabs, Turks, and Israelis, since all three groups have complementary skills.

Of course, I am perhaps delusional and in a deep state of hallucination, because the other danger is that the Caliphate might take over Turkey as well.

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