2014 August 08 Friday
Afghan Government To Fall Once United States Leaves

Afghanistan is kinda like Vietnam in 1973. Or 1974?

MAHMUD RAQI, Afghanistan Taliban fighters are scoring early gains in several strategic areas near the capital this summer, inflicting heavy casualties and casting new doubt on the ability of Afghan forces to contain the insurgency as the United States moves to complete its withdrawal of combat troops, according to Afghan officials and local elders.

The world is currently waiting to see whether Tajik Abdullah Abdullah or Pashtun Ashraf Ghani will win in the Afghan presidential election vote recount and become the guy who is president when the Taliban fighters overrun Kabul. How cool is that? Perhaps Ghani, being a Pashtun, will be better suited to negotiate surrender with his fellow tribe members.

This reminds me of one of the many books I am currently cycling between: The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001-2014 by Carlotta Gall. The correct enemy in Gall's view: Pakistan. She makes a persuasive argument.

Afghanistan doesn't have the culture and human capital needed to form a liberal democracy. But it does have the culture and human capital (as well as the Pakistani manipulation) to turn it back into a Muslim theocratic state.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2014 August 08 10:17 PM 


Comments
Wolf-Dog said at August 9, 2014 1:54 AM:

More importantly, in the future it is very likely that the religious extremists in Pakistan will come to power: in this context I have used the word "extremist" in the relative sense, I mean something similar to the Caliphate of Iraq gaining power in Pakistan; otherwise the average person in Pakistan already has a very intolerant religious attitude, I am talking about a new government that will be interested in expanding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal by a factor of 100 and to use these to gain religious influence. (Pakistan is said to have nearly 70-100 nukes already.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

Wolf-Dog said at August 9, 2014 1:56 AM:

More importantly, it is very likely that the religious extremists in Pakistan will come to power in the future: in this context I have used the word "extremist" in the relative sense, I mean something similar to the Caliphate of Iraq gaining power in Pakistan; otherwise the average person in Pakistan already has a very intolerant religious attitude, I am talking about a new government that will be interested in expanding Pakistan's nuclear arsenal by a factor of 100 and to use these to gain religious influence. (Pakistan is said to have nearly 70-100 nukes already.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

Nick said at August 9, 2014 10:39 AM:

One of the great tragedies of this century was the September 9, 2001 assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, commander of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. I don't know if he would have succeeded in rallying the Afghans into some semblance of a state, but at least we'd have a legitimate ally in the region. Here's the portion of the Wikipedia entry on him about Pakistan in 2001:

"In the spring 2001, Ahmad Shah Massoud had addressed the European Parliament in Brussels, saying that Pakistan was behind the situation in Afghanistan.[96] He also said that he believed that, without the support of Pakistan, Osama bin Laden, and Saudi Arabia, the Taliban would not be able to sustain their military campaign for up to a year. He said the Afghan population was ready to rise against them.[96] Addressing the United States specifically, he warned that should the U.S. not work for peace in Afghanistan and put pressure on Pakistan to cease their support to the Taliban, the problems of Afghanistan would soon become the problems of the U.S. and the world.[96][120]"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmad_Shah_Massoud#Warning_the_world_about_September_11

jhobelman@neweralife.com said at August 9, 2014 10:56 AM:

Talking about Afghanistan as a "state" is probably too ludicrous even for the Onion.


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