2014 February 17 Monday
Executive Tyranny More Likely In American Future
Daniel Larison takes a look at some ridiculous Netflix TV show about corruption in politics (House Of Cards) and then makes the interesting point that majority parties are very very unlikely to impeach a President of their party. Hmmm....
We are on the path to a one party state due to demographic changes caused by immigration. Once the Republican Party becomes road kill and loses both houses of Congress how can a US President ever get impeached?
If a US President ceases to be vulnerable to impeachment then the checks on executive branch action from the other 2 branches of government wither and fade. Future Presidents will be far more powerful within US borders (even as the US loses power over the world as a whole).
We face a pretty rocky road before we get to that point. For example, I'm expecting a massive economic downturn when world oil production starts going down. Plus, the welfare state will grow some more and old folks will get poorer. Not clear on how all that will play out.
By Randall Parker at 2014 February 17 08:45 PM
RP, even if there is no economic downturn, the new political elites (future subdivisions within the party) will find that the country is simply too small to divide, and they will fight each other violently. Many of the new elites will become privileged also, and new aristocracies will emerge. This is how biological evolution progresses. The abolition of monarchies was just a transition mechanism for the creation of new elites.
The original BBC series - House of Cards, To Play the King, and The Final Cut - is on YouTube. Great stuff. And yes, we're becoming a one party state, but it won't be much worse than the one and a half party state we've been since, when, the 70s? The Republicans haven't been any sort of real political opposition for decades, because we haven't had a democratic media in all that time. No real democratic debate, no real democracy. The lack of cultural power has made it impossible for the Republicans to resist the racial/sexual warriors of the far left. This lack made it impossible for the Republicans to change things even when they won. Now they won't win, but the transition from what we have now won't be all that great. The last time a President was impeached it was over something trivial, precisely for the reasons above. Afraid to take him on over real issues (particularly any issue that even touches on race - like failing to protect our borders) they stooped to the blue dress. So basically it's that way now - look at the Republicans total impotence in the Fast and Furious and IRS harassment scandals.
In the history of the disastrous destruction of what was once the greatest country on Earth the Republicans have been, quite literally, worse than nothing. In my fantasies every one who makes less than 250k a year would abandon the Republican Party and register as Democrats. Then, at least, they would have some say in government. And it would likely cause a split in the Democratic Party with the crazies and white-hating racists walking out. The trick then would be not allowing the sort of business pimps who control the Republicans control the Democrats. Basically trade genocide for soft socialism. But it's probably too late.
Pat Caddell: The GOP establishment "WANTS the IRS to go after the Tea Party"
We will remain a two party state. The GOP will eventually start moving left and capturing a larger share of moderate white voters. NYC is much more diverse and liberal than the USA as a whole, but just ended 20 years of GOP or GOPish rule, and California twice elected Pete Wilson and Arnold. 45% white, 30% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 6% black San Diego just elected a white moderate republican over a Hispanic democrat by a 10 point landslide. In other words, with the right republican, even liberal whites will block vote for the Republican.
As the percentage of NAM voters rise, so does GOP white voter performance, and the ability of attractive bill Clinton type white democrats to win primaries will also drop. And a number of white traditionally dem or swing states have been moving right: WV, ND, SD, MN, IA, MN, KY, AR.
Romney was a worse candidate than Reagan in every respect but did about as well among white voters.
The big question will be on what issues does the GOP move left. I'd prefer abortion, gay rights, the environment, minimum wage, and corporate regulation, while holding to the right on taxes, welfare, and immigration.
The giant 2010 victories allowed the GOP to gerrymander so much the pressure to move left abated in the house and the states, but this will be temporary.