2013 November 28 Thursday
Internal Migrations Within The United States
Check out this interactive graph of migrations by state. The Northeast is losing people, with the exception of New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The Midwest is losing. North Dakota is getting a flow into their booming oil shale fields. The Rockies and Northwest have influxes. The outflux from California (thanks immigration) continues. The Southwest (excepting New Mexico) is getting an influx. The Southeast is getting an influx.
Causes: a migration toward warmer weather enabled by air conditioning. A flow toward lower tax and lower cost Republican states. Also, a native flight away from the immigration flood.
The flow toward Republican states will eventually turn many of those states into higher tax and higher cost places. We are running out of places to flee to.
What I'd like to know: where are the high IQ people migrating? Silicon Valley is an obvious destination. Ditto NYC. But are there net migrations of smart native born to these places? Or just migrations at early stages of careers with many eventual migrations to areas with lower living costs?
I would especially like to know whether smart people are concentrating anywhere that has low housing costs and low taxes.
By Randall Parker at 2013 November 28 06:52 PM
It sounds like you're interested in what Charles Murray called "super zips," in his Coming Apart book, but those that happen to be in red states. Offhand, I'd say the biggest group do super zips would be in Texas. Murray had a data file which might help: http://www.aei.org/book/society-and-culture/coming-apart-the-state-of-white-america-1960-2010/
The only Midwestern state that is losing population is Michigan. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin are all either slowly growing or stagnant. If the shale oil/gas revolution is long-lasting, it is probable that a reindustrialization will occur, and one of the natural locations for it is the Midwest. This might lead once again to population growth.
It should also be noted that the increasing Mexican population in the Southwest might result in another surge of white flight. And the Midwest would be a natural destination.
@bob sykes -
Michigan lost 74,780 net residents from 2000 to 2010. However, 2012 saw a reversal of the population decline, with a gain of 6559 (0.07%). The auto industry has condiderably downsized, and the Republican state government has been cutting taxes and attracting new industry. The new right-to-work law doesn't hurt, either.
I'd be curious to know what sorts of people are coming into Michigan. Engineers?
I went digging thru a lot of web pages looking for info about engineering and software developer employment by state and region. The most interesting chart came from a BLS web page on application software developer employment. In terms of employment per 1000 jobs San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara is the highest. The state-level numbers aren't useful for large states like California. You have to look at metropolitan areas to see more clearly. The Seattle area scores high due to MSFT, Boeing, and Amazon among others.
Another interesting page: Cleveland Fed table of STEM degrees per 1000 individuals for 18-24 year olds by state.
Interesting that the two Hispanic-majority US jurisdictions - New Mexico and Puerto Rico - are either stagnant (in NM's case) or losing people (in PR's case). And the other state with the large Hispanic population, California, has been bleeding native-born citizens to the rest of the country for two decades now. This bodes poorly for our Hispanic-heavy future.
This bodes poorly for our Hispanic-heavy future.
It's a pity that we can't subject ethnic groups to "Pottery Barn" rules: you break it, you bought it. The people who sank Detroit and Gary and Memphis and are sinking California ought to have to stay there and repair the damage, not flee from their own work to repeat it in new surroundings.
bob sykes writes: "It should also be noted that the increasing Mexican population in the Southwest might result in another surge of white flight. And the Midwest would be a natural destination."
A harsh reality of most of the flight destinations (I've lived in two since 2000: Stevenson, WA and Shenandoah, IA) is that a substantial number of those fleeing to those locations are doing so with the goal of finding a place where they can be comfortable with the illusions that led them to render their original environment uninhabitable. This combines with a substantial number who never left those flight destinations who -- mainly because of media and academia abuse -- have come to loathe their own culture to the point that they team up with the incoming disease vectors to create a formidable immune suppression response. Indeed, they become activists in attempting to divert social services to anyone that they can point to as proof that they are in a flight destination not because they can't take environments such as those they are creating, but because they are, in essence, evangelizing the Heathen remnant of the Nation of Settlers.
Seriously, when I get the emotional urge to commit violence, it isn't against the Mexicans coming into small town Iowa so much as it is these Church Ladies. I really do understand the Viking raids now.