Alex Tabarrok is sick of pundits who make ridiculous predictions that they aren't held accountable for. He suggests systems where
In fact, the NYTimes should require that Silver, and other pundits, bet their beliefs.
Overall, I am for betting because I am against bullshit. Bullshit is polluting our discourse and drowning the facts. A bet costs the bullshitter more than the non-bullshitter so the willingness to bet signals honest belief. A bet is a tax on bullshit; and it is a just tax, tribute paid by the bullshitters to those with genuine knowledge.
What we need even more: track records of pundit predictions. We really need to know who is right much more than 50% of the time. That way we'd know who to listen to. A betting system would help to do this. But even without cash involved if pundit predictions were recorded and checked we'd be better off.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2012 November 03 08:59 PM|