2012 April 14 Saturday
US Federal Health Care Costs To Rise Faster

It was never going to happen that more people would get more health care for less total money. So Obama's supposed reform to cut total health care costs was a fraud as a cost cutter and its main aim was to shift money away from net taxpayers toward poor people. A nation which is already on a reckless fiscal course will go even deeper into debt due to Obama's health care program.

President Obamaís landmark health-care initiative, long touted as a means to control costs, will actually add more than $340 billion to the nationís budget woes over the next decade, according to a new study by a Republican member of the board that oversees Medicare financing.

The study is set to be released Tuesday by Charles Blahous, a conservative policy analyst whom Obama approved in 2010 as the GOP trustee for Medicare and Social Security. His analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that the health-care law, which calls for an expensive expansion of coverage for the uninsured beginning in 2014, will nonetheless reduce deficits by raising taxes and cutting payments to Medicare providers.

I am pessimistic about US economic growth and innovation over the next 10 years. A number of fundamentals have shifted against a fast rate of innovation. Plus, demographic changes due to aging and immigration are making for a less skilled labor force as well as a declining ratio of net taxpayer workers to everyone else. So I think official projections of future deficits are excessively optimistic. We need to collectively act like we are poorer than we've thought ourselves to be. But our elites remain in denial about our limits to growth.

Debt accumulation can be managed as long as strong economic growth is the norm. But debt servicing becomes a big problem if economic growth remains weak and becomes a huge problem under conditions of sustained economic contraction. We are most at risk of an extended period of economic contraction once Peak Oil hits. That's probably later in this decade.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2012 April 14 10:10 PM  Economics Health

Mike said at April 15, 2012 7:40 AM:

It's hard to believe, but a good portion of this country actually believed that Obamacare would provider more health care AND save money. Just count it up as another delusion of both the mob and the elites.

bbartlog said at April 15, 2012 10:01 AM:

I thought you were of the opinion that peak oil had already hit?

Mercer said at April 15, 2012 10:01 AM:

" money away from net taxpayers "

The article talks about reducing Medicare spending. People on Medicare are not "net taxpayers". Most people on Medicare receive far more in benefits then they paid in Medicare payroll taxes.

I am skeptical of claims that Obamacare will reduce health spending but I don't see the justice in the GOP position that people currently on Medicare should get a blank check on medical spending while the government does nothing for working age people who have trouble getting insurance.

OOPSEY said at April 15, 2012 2:16 PM:

"We are most at risk of an extended period of economic contraction once Peak Oil hits. That's probably later in this decade."

It amazes me to see how for years you've been heatedly and repeatedly defending the dogma of Peak Oil. If you don't have that belief anymore, good for you, but you could at least aknowledge that you were very stubborn and impolite against those who dared doubt claims about Peak Oil.

An "I was wrong" would be fine, or at least an "I wasn't sure", but the mother of all wisdom phrases is "I don't know". Try it.

MarkyMark said at April 16, 2012 1:12 AM:

If the US can make it to the end of the decade limping along before a date with fiscal destiny then that will have been close to 12 years since the 2008 collapse. No wonder politicians kick the can.

Rakhi said at April 21, 2012 5:07 AM:

Yes you are right that obama's reform is fraud.. it is not possible to more health care in less money..

J. said at April 21, 2012 11:11 AM:

Not with the present model. "Insurance" has been redefined from the practice of pooling risk from rare events to pure cost-shifting for all medical care, even the most routine and the most inevitable. There is no market force to hold costs down.

But that is only part of the story. Even if costs were competitive, there is not enough wealth in the country to provide each person with the total, lifelong, advanced medical care that they have been led to expect is their right.

JBot said at April 26, 2012 8:46 PM:

I still think there is a much higher than expected chance the USA will go the way of the USSR, only more peacefully.

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