2011 June 18 Saturday
Rasmussen: 66% Say US In Recession

Economists measure a recession by the length of time an economy contracts. By contrast, regular citizens measure a recession by how long unemployment is high, incomes are lower than they used to be, and the economy is not growing much. Therefore it is not surprising that Rasmussen Reports finds 66% of the American people believe the US is in a recession.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, held steady on Saturday at 74.4. Consumer confidence is down four points from a week ago, down three points from a month ago and down four points from three months ago.

Twenty-three percent (23%) of Consumers say the U.S. economy is getting better these days, while 56% say it's getting worse. Two-out-of-three consumers (66%) think the United States is currently in a recession.

With oil prices near a level that will cause another recession and supply worries likely to keep oil prices high (unless China goes into a recession) we are stuck in a long period of slow economic growth or worse. Noted Yale housing economist Robert Shiller believes our risk of double-dip recession is substantial.

Lower your expectations. Fundamentals have shifted in ways that limit the rate of economic growth.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2011 June 18 11:05 PM  Economics Business Cycle

bbartlog said at June 20, 2011 6:21 AM:

Don't forget that the GDP growth numbers rely on inflation statistics, i.e. you measure nominal growth and then reduce in accordance with inflation; so that to the extent the official inflation figures are understated, growth will be overstated. In other words, this may not just be the man on the street having a different perspective - we may still *be* in a recession, cloaked by a little massage on the inflation stats. Things like rail traffic, the percentage of the population actually working, and energy consumption (you know, the kind of stuff we look at for China because *their* official figures are fake) don't make it look like there's much of a recovery.

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