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2011 May 02 Monday
How Much Of Pakistan's Government Complicit On Osama?

Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI is seen by one British counterterror official as a group of fiefdoms working independent of each other at cross- purposes.

In the past, small, trusted units of the Pakistani security forces have worked with U.S. counterterror agencies to capture fugitives such as Ramzi Binalshib, a Sept. 11 suspect arrested in Karachi in 2003 after a fierce gun battle. But now there are fears that the leadership of the ISI, the dominant institution in Pakistan, has lost control not only of its militant allies but of the spy agency itself.

"I grow ever more cautious of talking of ISI as a coherent organization," said a veteran British counterterror official who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "The individual directorates are remarkably autonomous and even work at cross purposes. So you are dealing with one directorate that works side-by-side with us...But then you have another running proxy operations all over South Asia. It's remarkable how little strategic command and control is exercised from the top."

But the rogue individual directorate theory for Osama's conveniently located hide-out does not seem plausible. A single ISI directorate that needed to work against the will of the military and other directorates would face too much risk placing Bin Laden so close to key elite Pakistani military installations. The height of the walls, expense of the complex in such a poor country, and other characteristics made the place unusual.

In 2009 a couple of UCLA geography professors and their students figured out Abbottabad and another Pakistani city were likely to be where Bin Laden was in hiding. They theorized risks are lower in cities and published a paper about it. They expected him to be in a building with high walls around it.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2011 May 02 10:54 PM  Terrorists Western Response


Comments
gcochran said at May 4, 2011 11:32 AM:

Those UCLA guys did not finger Abbottabad.

The compound was middling expensive by US standards.

What was unusual was that whenever neighborhood kids accidentally kicked a ball into the compound, the inhabitants bought the ball rather than return it. That, and being close to the Pakistan version of West Point, in a town chock-full of military installations, retired military and intelligence, types, etc. It seems likely that some of the people in Paki military/intelligence circles were in on this. Simplest motive is that catching Osama might well have ended the gravy train, although there could have been other reasons.


You can be sure that those Pakis read in were few in number, since otherwise someone would have spilled the beans long ago.


Lou Pagnucco said at May 4, 2011 11:34 AM:

I think I am witnessing a disinfo campaign to throw enough flak and chaff into the atmosphere to rule out a real investigation. Recent "news" releases point in wildly conflicting directions. Also see --

"No proof Pakistanis knew bin Laden location: U.S."
http://www.propublica.org/article/discovery-of-obl-hideout-spotlights-concerns-about-pakistans-intel-service

Very impossible to believe that all Pakistani intelligence groups have not been completely compromised for a long time.

Also impossible to believe that such an operation would not be designed to capture bin Laden, and come equipped with incapacitating gas, stun and flash grenades, tasers, ... Couldn't the entire compound have been rendered unconscious in seconds?

Also, would someone who could mastermind 9-11 "hide" in such a conspicuous building?
Wouldn't he have hidden in one of those many super-sophisticated high-tech fortresses that Rumsfeld revealed?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGhGHxw0mSo
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1403724

Does not compute.


JJ said at May 4, 2011 8:09 PM:

The geographers thought he would be in an small isolated city in the Tribal Territories, (Western Pakistan), nowhere near Abbottabad nor similar to Abbottabad - ie the only thing they got right is - Pakistan.

ElPrezZardari said at May 4, 2011 10:47 PM:

I'm shocked, shocked, shocked that this was going on - shocked I tell you!

Lou Pagnucco said at May 4, 2011 10:53 PM:

So, let's see whether the following story is confirmed or refuted.

'Pakistan Claims It Warned About Compound In 2009'
http://www.myfoxny.com/dpp/news/pakistan-claims-it-warned-about-compound-in-2009-20110504-ncx

Governments are not known to be very honest.

Lono said at May 6, 2011 12:02 PM:

Lou,

Does not compute indeed.

U.S. Govt. is LYING to you - wake the f**k up simpletons!

Sheesh!!


Hey you, Whitehouse,
Ha ha charade you are
You house proud town mouse,
Ha ha charade you are
You're trying to keep our feelings off the street.
You're nearly a real treat,
All tight lips and cold feet
And do you feel abused?
You gotta stem the evil tide,
And keep it all on the inside.
You're nearly a laugh,
You're nearly a laugh
But you're really a cry.


"What counts is not what sounds plausible, not what we would like to believe, not what one or two witnesses claim, but only what is supported by hard evidence rigorously and skeptically examined. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

- Carl Sagan (1980)

no i don't said at May 6, 2011 3:05 PM:

"What counts is not what sounds plausible, not what we would like to believe, not what one or two witnesses claim, but only what is supported by hard evidence rigorously and skeptically examined. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

- Carl Sagan (1980)

Great Quote! (Even though Randall might say that "Carl Sagan is wrong")

By the way, I really think such a great quote should be capitalized even if it hurts the ears or tender eyes of so many puritans while looking at the screen:

EXTRAORDINARY CLAIMS REQUIRE EXTRAORDINARY EVIDENCE.

Cheers Lono!

Lono said at May 6, 2011 9:26 PM:

no i don't,

It's a funny thing - I dabble in a little UFOlogy and have that quote thrown in my face all the time - as well it should be - but all of a sudden when we deal with the U.S. Government we should all turn our brains off??

Well some of us here obviously can't.

The number of sheeple bah-ing all across the web - and in the Mensa forums - frankly disturbs me.

Thank goodness we didn't let Einstein off the hook quite so easily!


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