2011 February 01 Tuesday
What Regime Change Will Not Change In Egypt

What regime change in Egypt will not do:

  • The new regime won't be any fairer toward the Coptic Christian minority.
  • The new regime won't grant more freedom to women.
  • The new regime won't be any less corrupt. It will just have different people making the money.
  • The new regime won't manage the Egyptian economy so well that it will usher in a new era of more rapidly rising per capita incomes.
  • The new regime won't be any friendly toward Israel and the opposite could easily be the case.
  • The new regime will not validate the dream of democracy as the solution to all the world's political problems.

If elections are held then will the Muslim Brotherhood sweep to power? Depends on who is allowed to run.

Regime change is unlikely to solve the underlying problems in Egypt. It is hard to look at the demographics of this mostly desert country and see signs for optimism. Mubarak was ineffective in his efforts to address the underlying problem of too many people in too resource poor a country. What will the new regime do about population growth?

Since President Hosni Mubarak took office in 1981, the population has nearly doubled. But most of the country's 82 million people are squashed in urban areas near the Nile, in an area roughly the size of Switzerland, which is home to 7.5 million.

"Before you add another baby, make sure his needs are secured," ran the slogan, adding to a string of campaigns over 30 years to encourage family planning. Mubarak told a government-sponsored population conference that cutting population growth was urgent.

Egypt might fall back into the Malthusian Trap.

The outlook for both Egypt and the region will be grave if the most populous Arab country continues to grow at current rates, Egyptian and UN officials say.

"The consequences are a real deterioration in the quality of life and in agricultural land per person," said Magued Osman, chairman of the cabinet's Information and Decision Support Center. "We are depending heavily on imported food items and this will increase."

In Egypt the government subsidizes food prices to placate the poor. But the political unrest has driven up the prices of food and so the poor are under strain.

“Since Friday everything started to be expensive,” said Om Massad, a door lady handling deliveries in Bab el Louq, who said 5 piester bread is not available anymore and 50 piester bread has jumped in price to 60 piesters. One Egyptian pound is made up of 100 piesters, or about 17 U.S. cents. “Shops are taking advantage of these conditions,” she said.

The revenue earned by oil exporters in the Middle East probably insulates those regimes from the unrest we see in Egypt. By contrast, new regime in Egypt won't have any more money to pay for food subsidies and world food prices might go much higher. It is hard to see how the new regime is going to be able to meet the raised expectations of the street protesters.

Will the Muslim Brotherhood make any effort to slow population growth? Or will it keep women at home and pregnant? Women make up 69% of the illiterates in Egypt.

"Egypt is one of the most challenging countries for any literacy programme," a literacy programme administrator at Catholic relief agency CARITAS told IPS. "You can't afford to step off the pedal for a minute."

One in every four Egyptians is illiterate. Despite free education and long- running literacy programmes, the number of illiterates has changed little in over two decades. Nearly 17 million adult Egyptians can neither read nor write, according to recent government data.

The least educated rural folks make the most babies.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2011 February 01 08:29 PM  Mideast Poverty


Comments
Wolf-Dog said at February 2, 2011 4:51 AM:

> * The new regime won't be any fairer toward the Coptic Christian minority.
> * The new regime won't grant more freedom to women.
> * The new regime won't be any less corrupt. It will just have different people making the money.
> * The new regime won't manage the Egyptian economy so well that it will usher in a new era of more rapidly rising per capita incomes.
> * The new regime won't be any friendly toward Israel and the opposite could easily be the case.
> * The new regime will not validate the dream of democracy as the solution to all the world's political problems.

According to this Wikipedia article, at least 78 % of the Egyptian women undergo female circumcision. Given that this crime against humanity is also practiced in many other parts of the Islamic world, the future of Egyptian women does not appear to be better.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Female_genital_cutting

Even if the new regime comes to power by democratic means, it is likely to become authoritarian in the end. This website of Glenn Beck speculates that Islamic extremists are likely to gain power in Egypt, with the aim of bringing the Islamic world one step closer to the Caliphate, in the Middle East.

http://www.glennbeck.com/
http://www.glennbeck.com/2011/02/01/study-guide-muslim-brotherhood-and-more-on-egypt/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_brotherhood

If Egypt is governed by the Islamists, it's only a matter of time before the Saudi royal family is overthrown. This can have dire consequences for the Western world. For instance, the price of oil going significantly above $100 per barrel was an aggravating factor that made the economic collapse worse, and if the price of oil goes above $200 and stays there for several years, this would almost certainly cause a depression here.

California kid said at February 2, 2011 11:40 AM:

According to Wikipedia the average Egyptian IQ is 81. Good lord... They're never going to be very rich, are they ? But they have TV and they can see how people live in countries with an average IQ of 100. This breeds envy and resentment with no real way to fix the problem.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_by_country

This chart is helpful:
vcbconsulting.com/gtworld/iqgrade.html
For an IQ of 80 and age of 16, a person's highest expected level of accomplishment in school would be 8th grade (7.8). The person's mental age (compared to someone with an IQ of 100) would be 13 years old (12.8).

So Egypt is largely a country of adult people with an 8th grade education at best. And they never get any smarter as they age. That's it. Not much of a Smart Fraction there.

Engineer Dad said at February 2, 2011 8:36 PM:

Hmmmm, isn't it at this point the all knowing Seerak accuses Wolf-Dog and the Cal-Kid of being nattering nabobs of negativism while objecting to Randall's analysis to inform us that the peoples sense of self-determination will lead Egypt to the path of sweetness and light?

Randall Parker said at February 2, 2011 10:54 PM:

Wolf-Dog,

The Saudis have oil. As long as they have a lot of cash flowing in from oil sales the princes will stay in power. At least for a decade or two I expect oil prices to go up faster than Saudi oil exports go down. So I do not think the Saudi regime faces any immediate threat.

Saudi Arabia faces a continued dilution of oil wealth due to population growth. Plus, oil production will drop eventually. So at some point regime change becomes likely. But when? The 2030s? The 2040s? Not in the next 5 years at least.

no i don't said at February 3, 2011 8:49 AM:

Yeap Egypt is really bad. How many years has it now been a U.S. ally...? Around 30...?

So much for being a U.S. ally for that long...

Besides, who are we to tell others how they should live?

jerry said at February 3, 2011 10:06 AM:

"This breeds envy and resentment with no real way to fix the problem." Of course there's a way to fix the problem - colonize Europe, Australia, and North America, with the connivance of the Left. If the third world is facing a "Malthusian" problem then we damned well better do something about our Liberal problem, soon, and by what ever means necessary.

Wolf-Dog said at February 4, 2011 12:58 AM: >The Saudis have oil. As long as they have a lot of cash flowing in from oil sales the princes will stay in power. >At least for a decade or two I expect oil prices to go up faster than Saudi oil exports go down. >So I do not think the Saudi regime faces any immediate threat.

It is true that the Saudi royal family is bribing the population into submission, but at the same time, it's the tremendous oil reserves that make Saudi Arabia the number one takeover target for Al Qaeda. If the Saudi Oil reserves are totally taken over by Al Qaeda, then the Caliphate will become economically possible.

R7 said at February 6, 2011 1:45 PM:

Maybe, in order for the Egyptians to reduce their population growth, they should introduce Feminazi solutions. Solutions such as No-Fault Divorce and Vaginamoney that will enable Egyptian women to take everything from the man upon divorce. This will cause a marriage strike from men to begin, reducing birthrates. But of course, this assumes that Egyptian women will act like American Bitches amd Western Whores.

hbd chick said at February 7, 2011 5:08 PM:

i point out that egyptians will (continue to) have a hard time building a civil society 'cause they keep marrying their cousins and you know what that means -- tribalism!:

http://hbdchick.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/aigyptos/

Dboy said at February 9, 2011 7:11 PM:

"The new regime won't be any friendlier toward Israel and the opposite could easily be the case."

So I guess it's not ALL bad news then.


Post a comment
Comments:
Name (not anon or anonymous):
Email Address:
URL:
Remember info?

      
 
Web parapundit.com
Go Read More Posts On ParaPundit
Site Traffic Info
The contents of this site are copyright ©