2010 June 20 Sunday
Illinois Passes California In Debt Default Risk

The CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor calculates probability of default within 5 years by sovereign credit issuers in the US and other nations using market prices for credit default swaps (CDSs). They now have Illinois at greater risk of default in 5 years with Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD) of 23.26% versus California at only 22.73%. Both states beat Latvia at a mean 21.71% but lag behind Iraq at 23.79%.

The US states have been very irresponsible in promising big pension benefits that they can not afford to pay. I am expecting lots of sovereign defaults. The dominoes will start falling fast when peak oil hits.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2010 June 20 11:44 PM  Economics Sovereign Crises


Comments
Big bill said at June 23, 2010 10:50 AM:

But I thought all the little Mexican illegals were going to bail out all the yuppie pension plans.

James Bowery said at June 23, 2010 10:09 PM:

That's not it, Big bill. The problem is Scott McNealy was ignored when he said, back in 2000:

"...you ought to be net importers of brilliant people. I am fighting with our government to allow H1B visas cap to be raised. I was in at the White House talking to the chief of staff to get the H1B visa cap raised. We already half way through the fiscal year, capped out on the number of really bright Israelis and Indians."

We just didn't have enough immigration from the world's best and brightest!


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