2009 June 27 Saturday
Obama Blocked On Immigration Amnesty By Economy

Rahm Emanuel says the votes aren't there to pass an immigration amnesty. I would not think so. The US unemployment rate is probably over 10% and likely to hit 11% or maybe even 12%.

Just hours before President Obama hosted lawmakers for a discussion on immigration at the White House, Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel conceded that Obama and his allies on Capitol Hill do not have the votes to pass a comprehensive reform bill.

"If the votes were there, you wouldn't need to have the meeting. You could go to a roll call," Emanuel told reporters during an hour-long breakfast.

Obama hopes conditions in 2010 will make immigration amnesty possible. But I'm predicting a jobless economic recovery next year.

But "after all the demagoguery, we've got a responsible set of leaders who want to get things done" for a possible immigration compromise next year, Obama said. He singled out former foe John McCain (R-Ariz.) as an ally.

Why do I expect a jobless recovery (and therefore continued deep opposition to immigration amnesty)? See the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank's report Jobless Recovery Redux? and also Calculated Risk points out that unemployment continued to rise for 15 months after the end of the 1990 recession and 19 months after the 2001 recession with weak jobs growth even after the latter 19 month period. Plus, Peak Oil is hitting.

Senator McCain insists any immigration deal have strong union-busting measures. I'm sure the large anti-union wing of the Democratic Party will agree.

"I can't support any proposal that doesn't have a legal temporary worker program and I would expect the president of the United States to put his influence on the unions in order to change their position," McCain said.

The biggest reason for this opposition to more low skilled immigration: the deepening recession. States can't afford the poor people they already have and the states are slashing budgets for health care, education, even jails and police. The unemployed and those who (quite rationally) fear unemployment do not want more competition for a limited supply of jobs.

Obama clearly wants to expand the lower class.

"I'm committed to passing comprehensive immigration reform as president of the United States," Mr. Obama said at the Esperanza National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast in Washington. "The American people believe in immigration."

The Democrats in the US House Of Representatives do not want to pass unpopular immigration amnesty legislation until they can be sure the Senate will too.

Pressed on the issue at a briefing today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that “the plan has always been for the Senate to go first.”

The Senate passed immigration reform in 2006, but efforts bogged down in 2007 and 2008. House Democrats, who all face voters every two years, want to be assured that a plan can pass the Senate, before taking what is for many a tough vote.

While the elites who have firm control of our national government look for ways to pass another immigration amnesty down at the state and local levels the tide is running in the opposition direction. The states have been moving toward tougher immigration law enforcement for years. Arizona has a law in its legislature that will criminalize illegal aliens.

And, if approved, Arizona would become the only state to criminalize the presence of illegal immigrants through an expansion of its trespassing law.

Utah has a new law going into effect that will require prove of legal residence in order to get a driver's license or state ID card. The lawyers who make a living off of illegal aliens ar e not happy about this law.

Utah's new immigration law, SB81, takes effect July 1. But several attorneys who belong to the American Immigration Lawyers Association say they're not waiting.

They plan to file a lawsuit later this week challenging various portions of the law.

"There are a number of provisions we think are unconstitutional," said Hakeem Ishola, one of the attorneys filing the suit.

The "Jobs Americans won't do" chestnut is wearing thin in this recession. Coloradans are taking farm worker jobs. Tennesseans are working the night shift in Tyson chicken processing plants. After Swift meat packing plants were raided for illegal aliens Americans in Mississippi lined up to replace them. When plants get raided to clean out the illegals salaries go up. The Democratic Party wants to drive salaries down. The Democratic Party serves the employers while pretending to represent the working class.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2009 June 27 09:20 AM  Immigration Politics

miles said at June 27, 2009 10:15 AM:

"The Democratic Party serves the employers while pretending to represent the working class."

Precisely. Its amazing isn't it? Nancy Pelosi would hate trailer-park families with two working adults more than any other demographic imaginable.

Robert Hume said at June 27, 2009 11:04 AM:

It's conceivable that as minorities become a larger portion of the population that the "racist" stigma of being anti-immigration will fade and that agreement will be reached to restrict immigration. Sort of along the lines of the riots in South Africa to keep out Zimbabwians in order to preserve jobs.

Aki_Izayoi said at June 27, 2009 10:36 PM:

Robert Hume,

You are probably correct.
Steve Sailer said that Ceasar Chavez was for stronger immigration laws.

Hiro_Oiwake said at July 1, 2009 12:26 AM:

Who better to determine the future of U.S. demographics than an immigration lawyer/global carpetbagger named Hakeem Ishola?

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