2009 May 29 Friday
Permanent Vast Underclass By 2050 In America

Writing in the Christian Science Monitor Lawrence Harrison claims Barack Obama is probably the last President who can stop the emergence of a vast underclass in America.

The political realities of the rapidly growing Latino population are such that Mr. Obama may be the last president who can avert the permanent, vast underclass implied by the current Census Bureau projection for 2050.

Do I sound like a right-wing "nativist"? I'm not. I'm a lifelong Democrat; an early and avid supporter of Obama. I'm gratified by his nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. I'm also the grandson of Eastern European Jewish immigrants; and a member, along with several other Democrats, of the advisory boards of the Federation for American Immigration Reform and Pro English. Similar concerns preoccupied the distinguished Democrat Barbara Jordan when she chaired the congressionally mandated US Commission on Immigration Reform in the 1990s.

Congresswoman Jordan was worried about the adverse impact of high levels of legal and illegal immigration on poor citizens, disproportionately Latinos and African-Americans. The principal beneficiaries of our current immigration policy are affluent Americans who hire immigrants at substandard wages for low-end work. Harvard economist George Borjas estimates that American workers lose $190 billion annually in depressed wages caused by the constant flooding of the labor market at the low-wage end.

America's future has already arrived in Starr County Texas and Imperial County California. Texas overall has the lowest graduation rates in America. The demographics of Texas and California are grim. Educational reform does not work as a solution. Immigrant groups do not improve demographically in later generations.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2009 May 29 11:56 AM  Immigration Societal Decay

Anonymous said at May 29, 2009 1:31 PM:

By 2050? It is already here.

Robert Hume said at May 29, 2009 2:28 PM:

I've read several articles about Asians going back home. They won't come here if they can't find good public schools. And they can't find them if they are filled with Latins. We are reaching the state we have often warned about. The US will be like the rest of the underdeveloped world and no one will want to come here.

And if Europe also goes under there will be no place for European-ancestry folks to go. Asian countries certainly will not accept large numbers of immigrants.

rob said at May 30, 2009 12:12 PM:

Randall, this is totally off topic. When I go to comments at para and future pundit, the text disappears when the google ads are in view. I can highlight and it shows up. But it's a bit annoying. I use IE by the way. And yes, I do know that makes me computer retarded.

On topic. Mr. Obama is the only who can prevent the US's death by currently legal means. Retroactive repeal of birth citizenship would turn many hispanics into non citizens. Simply forcing illegal alien parents of minor US citizens to take their children home when deported would help. Even better would be correctly interpreting birth citizenship to exclude the children of criminal aliens.

Indian reservations are precedent for allowing backwards people in the US to live under their own arrangements. Similar systems could be made for South American Indians living within US territory. Or for Blacks who would prefer to live with laws not created and enforced by whites.

While the civil war established (perhaps temporarily) that states can't secede, whether the US can expel states or regions is an open question. Hispanic countries tend to be nondemocratic, and the constitution requires states to be republics, which perhaps we can reinterpret as classical liberal democracies. Heavily hispanic and black regions might not qualify.

Bloodless separation is preferable to war, and the sooner we discuss the whys and hows for legitimate separation, the better. For example, I don't think anyone should have a problem is Puerto Rico wants to become its own nation. If it's good enough for a territory, it's good enough for a state. Maybe the people of Vermont decide they don't have enough in common with the rest of the states, that's fine with me.

On the other hand, if the state of {} wants to separate so they can murder or enslave the [] who live there, that's not a legitimate reason to leave the nation. If that state wants to expel the [] and provides reasonable compensation for their property, perhaps that comes under eminent domain. The Supreme Court decided that the Federal Government can't stop states from applying eminent domain to increase tax revenue. Perhaps states can apply it to reduce expenditures, effectively paying net tax recipients to relocate.

I'm not clear that the Constitution requires a state to allow residents of any other state to relocate, so perhaps internal borders can protect low-hispanic states.

Current political divisions are not permanent. Living near blacks makes whites vote Republican. Living near hispanics probably does as well, though white migration patterns likely mask the effect. Voter demographics lags population demographics: whites might turn tribal soon enough win elections. An influx of white former democrats might lead to Republicans supporting subsidized birth control and abortion. No one has to say aloud that those policies will have disparate impact on minority birthrates, we can just let it happen.

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