2009 April 29 Wednesday
Yemen As Worsening Basket Case

Avoid Yemen and expect it to get worse when the oil runs out.

Yemen, the poorest Arab nation, is seeing annual tourist numbers dwindle to the thousands from 100,000 two decades ago because of worsening security. This is ending government hopes that its historical landmarks, including the 3,000-year-old Queen of Sheba temple and four United Nations World Heritage sites, can generate revenue and jobs to diversify the oil-dominated economy.

The country’s 2.8 billion barrels of oil reserves, which fund 70 percent of the national budget, are forecast by the government to run out over the next decade. With little foreign aid, economic prospects are shrinking for a population that is expected to double by 2030 to 40 million.

A doubling population while per capita GDP declines. Terrorist attacks have caused the tourist industry in Yemen to go in sharp decline. Few tourists still go to Yemen. But if you want bragging rights for an experience none of your peers will have then Yemen does offer a rare exclusive experience.

That oil decline in Yemen is going to repeat in other countries. Think about where you want to be and what job you want to be doing when oil production starts down its final path of production decline.

Yemen's population age distribution is best viewed in charts. Suffice to say, an extremely young and rapidly growing population. Yemen's yearly per capita GDP is somewhere between $765 and $880 depending on who is doing the measuring.

Yemen is across the Gulf of Aden from the territory which is still called Somalia even though Somalia is effectively no longer a single country. Will Yemen also fall down into civil war? It is a place in desperate need of aggressive birth control. But Islam helps to keep the women down and pregnant.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2009 April 29 11:44 PM  Chaotic Regions


Comments
Big Bill said at May 2, 2009 3:27 AM:

I expect they are going to move here. Look for the "Yemeni community" in your city to start growing rapidly.


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