2008 October 12 Sunday
11% Drop In California Per Capita Income By 2020

Brenda Walker points to a new Heather Mac Donald article about how Hispanics are failing to rise up to white levels of education and skills.

John McCain and Barack Obama have largely avoided discussing immigration during the presidential campaign. But when it comes to the legal side of the issue, they both seem to support the status quo: an official policy centered around low-skilled, predominately Hispanic immigrants. A forthcoming book shows just how misguided that policy is, especially in light of the nation’s current economic woes. The Latino Education Crisis: The Consequences of Failed Social Policies, by Patricia Gandara and Frances Contreras, offers an unflinching portrait of Hispanics’ educational problems and reaches a scary conclusion about those problems’ costs. The book’s analysis is all the more surprising given that its authors are liberals committed to bilingual education, affirmative action, and the usual slate of left-wing social programs. Yet Gandara and Contreras, education professors at UCLA and the University of Washington, respectively, are more honest than many conservative open-borders advocates in acknowledging the bad news about Hispanic assimilation.

Hispanics are underachieving academically at an alarming rate, the authors report. Though second- and third-generation Hispanics make some progress over their first-generation parents, that progress starts from an extremely low base and stalls out at high school completion. High school drop-out rates—around 50 percent—remain steady across generations. Latinos’ grades and test scores are at the bottom of the bell curve. The very low share of college degrees earned by Latinos has not changed for more than two decades. Currently only one in ten Latinos has a college degree.

I bet the difference in college degree rates in engineering and the hard sciences is much larger.

The state of California will experience almost a 1% decline in per capita income per year from now to 2020.

California provides a glimpse of what such changes might mean for America’s economic future. The Center for Public Policy and Higher Education predicts that unless the rate of college matriculation among “underrepresented” minorities (that is, Hispanics) immediately rises, the state will face an 11 percent drop in per capita income by 2020.

California already has high sales and income taxes. Yet we will see a big push for higher tax rates to make up for tax revenue losses as average incomes decline. Take this as a message to higher wage earning Californians that an exit strategy is worth considering.

The US is on its way to creating a permanent underclass? No, we already have one. But it is going to get much larger.

The Latino Education Crisis pulls no punches in its conclusions: “With no evidence of an imminent turnaround in the rate at which Latino students are either graduating from high school or obtaining college degrees, it appears that both a regional and national catastrophe are at hand.” The United States is well on its way to creating a “permanent underclass,” the authors write. They even have the nerve to discuss the calamity of Latinos’ rapidly rising illegitimacy rate—which now stands at 50 percent. Gandara and Contreras had better get used to being called racists from open-borders supporters, as anyone who dares to point out Hispanic family breakdown can attest.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2008 October 12 06:19 PM  Immigration Economics

JBS said at October 12, 2008 7:09 PM:

"11% Drop In California Per Capita Income By 2020"

At what point do things get so bad that we start implementing "radical" (ie, LOGICAL) policies such as paying immigrants to leave and paying welfare dependents more welfare in exchange for sterilization? We may well be nearing the "tipping point" where Evolutionary Conservatism can start to challenge "equality of outcome" dogma.

When times were good, the left was able to hide the damage their policies were inflicting. But egalitarian doctrine is just starting to hit people in their checkbook. Establishment conservatives like Michael Barone, and just about every right wing talk radio host in the country, are noting the relationship between immigration and the credit implosion. Only now are people ready to pay attention.

Furthermore, egalitarian dogma is living on borrowed time in terms of scientific validity. We will have $5,000 genome sequencing starting in Spring 2009 thanks the biotech startup, Complete Genomics. It is now only a matter of, oh, less than 5 years, before we find how intelligence varies across races and then leftist race dogma will go the way of flat earth theory.

The foundations of leftism are about to crash. Good.

Despite the pain that is coming, I think we can agree that having everything turn to dust soon - while we still have a chance to change course - is more desireable than putting off the day of judgement until it is too late to jump out of the fire.

Stopped Clock said at October 12, 2008 7:38 PM:

JBS, "leftist" race dogma is faithfully adhered to by rightists just as much as leftists and it isnt going to change in this century. People have "known" for hundreds of years that blacks are less intelligent than whites, and finding more evidence for it in genes isnt going to change the way we talk about race anymore than a paleontologist digging up a fossil of a beetle is going to convince Creationists to embrace evolutionism. The evidence is here already, but people aren't willing to believe it.

And denying couples the right to have children simply because they have genetic abnormalities or low IQs isnt going to help win over traditional conservatives to your cause.

Ned said at October 13, 2008 12:38 PM:

It looks like migration patterns within the US are not favoring California. I checked on the cost of renting a 26-ft U-Haul truck, which is typically used to move a small household, between Los Angeles and Boise. The LA-Boise one-way rental costs $2649, while the reverse trip costs $456. All of my relatives in California are planning to leave the state when they retire if they can sell their houses. Does Arnold know about this?

black sea said at October 13, 2008 5:54 PM:

It's only a matter of time before our benefactors in Washington consider some sort of "internal visa" system prohibitting state-to-state relocation without approval from the government. I'm kidding of course . . . sort of kidding.

Toadal said at October 13, 2008 9:59 PM:

California engineers I work with in Silicon Valley often refer to West Virginia or Tennessee residents with mild contempt. But how 'knowledge challenged' are Appalachian mountain people? How backward are people from Kentucky, for example?

Are California kids, on the average, better scholars than hillbilly kids from Kentucky? Well, no, the evidence from the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) our national representative measure of student achievement indicates it's the rednecks from Kentucky who learn significantly more.

States NAEP 2005 Science Scores

California 8th Grade Score: 136 ... 4th Grade Score: 137
Kentucky 8th Grade Score: 153 ... 4th Grade Score: 158

BTW, in science knowledge California kids are second to nearly everyone. The state is tied for 49th in national science scores, even Alabama scores higher. "But", you might say, "49% of California school children are Latino with many Mestizo and Amerindian non-English speakers". Yes, that's true, so let's compare children taught a subject that language has little to do with, a subject that is a form of language itself, Mathematics.

States NAEP 2005 8th Grade Mathematics Scores

California 8th Grade Score: 269
Kentucky 8th Grade Score: 274

California 8th graders are more math ignorant compared to Kentucky 8th graders, in fact, California 4th graders are also a dollar short in math. And as you may have guessed, Kentucky's average 4th and 8th grader outscores the average Californian in reading too.

My second point is illiterate and innumerate people are EXPENSIVE.
What does a Kentucky taxpayer get for his education tax dollar compared to a California taxpayer?

State and local elementary and secondary spending per capita for 2004

State ..Rank ..Spending Per Capita
California ..9th ..$1645
Kentucky ..50th ..$1101
California spends 49% more per capita on education than Kentucky.

Sadly, it seems by the year 2020 when a Kentucky technical employer becomes upset about the lack of skills, intelligence, and grasp of a positions requirements a job seeker lacks, they will refer to that 'Stupid from California' who was denied then forgotten.

MaryJ said at October 18, 2008 7:35 PM:

Mexifornia Latinos are already moving on to Kentucky, I hate to tell you. That is their pattern: destroy one state, then move on to virgin territory to suck that one dry too. They turn every state they move to into little Tijuana.

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