2008 October 05 Sunday
I predict they will be disappointed. At one point on your blog, I wondered whether it would be better if McCain won because of the potential disappointment Obama supporters will experience and the negative effects this will have for the long term prospects of liberalism.
Well, maybe Bush will be blamed for this if the economy tanks, and if it recovers, Obama will be responsible. Sort of a heads I win, tails you lose scenario.
"Really, you canít make this shit up."
Fortunately, we have highly-paid professionals to make it up for us.
Not to point out the obvious, but neither one of these guys is up to the job. In fact, I think Obama will make such a huge goddam mess of things in so short a period of time that the GOP will be back in control of Congress come January 2011. Maybe even with a veto-proof majority.
"I predict they will be disappointed. At one point on your blog, I wondered whether it would be better if McCain won because of the potential disappointment Obama supporters will experience and the negative effects this will have for the long term prospects of liberalism."
Obama supporters will not be disappointed en masse. They will always blame someone else. They are True Believers and as such they are only seeking an identity in their support of Obama.
black sea: "Fortunately, we have highly-paid professionals to make it up for us."
Are you saying that this is a coordinated effort to discredit Obama's support?
If so, it's working. But I was under the impression this was all, at least at the parents' or schools' level, voluntary and spontaneous. Honestly, I don't know which scenario would be more frightening: that people are insane enough to do this, or that they allow themselves to be used this way.
Middle School Teacher Suspended for 'Obama Frat' Spat:
"A Kansas City, Mo., middle school teacher was suspended for insubordination after he posted a video of his students chanting Barack Obama slogans on YouTube."
So it's okay to organize cult-of-personality demonstrations in public schools, you just can't tell people about it.
McCain supporters are going to gain the biggest long term psychological advantage because they'll be able to claim that if only their guy had won the country wouldn't be so messed up.
Obama supporters will have to live with whatever Obama will do or fail to do as President. Can they delude themselves into being happy about it?
Couldn't you use a more original pseudonym?
The country's already messed up, and McCain isn't going to help. The question is whether electing him, if that's possible, will do less damage. For many people, this is the first time they will understand that argument. I don't know what effect that realization will have in the long run.
Also: I'm not that interested in pseudonymity. Anonymity, at least wrt co-respondants, is more interesting.
"McCain supporters are going to gain the biggest long term psychological advantage because they'll be able to claim that if only their guy had won the country wouldn't be so messed up."
Maybe having 3 Supreme Court picks is a worthy price for this.
Check out this mash-up of the Obama kids and Nazi youth film footage. Great commentary! ;-)
Fuhrer Obama Hitler Youth - Sing for Change
Thanks, Jun. My reaction too. The Obamajugend videos put me in mind of the chorus of young Nazi boys in Cabaret singing in angelic voices, "The future belongs to me."
Obama inspires me to be damn scared.
The anti-christ of prophecy?
All those little girls will grow up wanting to produce a mulatto like Obama. :-)
Seriously...I am an Obama supporter, but this disturbs me as well, but if he did not have this type of pull, he would not have enough support to overcome the racist who will no doubt vote in numbers they had no voted before to vote against him, in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.
It looks like, if things stay the same or improve for Obama he will win every big swing state but maybe Missouri and North Carolina. That is far and away better than Kerry in 2004 and all you have to do is read the paper about Union Worker complain about racist not getting behind the Obama endorsement or check You Tube for what people in some states that lean Democrat said about why they wouldn't vote for Obama.
This cult of personality response seems to show that Obama can do no wrong. If you check the debate polling, everyone blames McCain for being negative and ignores Obama. If you checked out the CNN live debate shows...the control groups they had constantly sided with Obama, even when McCain said the exact same thing as he did...the trend line was flat or below average for McCain. I find this fascinating. This is a politicians dream, Hillary Clinton would not have had it this good NO WAY. I was skeptical for awhile...but now I believe Obama will win in a landslide on Nov. 4. It will be like when Carter won in the 70's...hopefully Obama is a better president.
As far as what HellKaiserRyo, I don't agree.
If the economy recovers by 2011..Obama will be reelected, the public has a short memory. It can be bad for two years and Obama can say that he told America this would happen 2 years before due to what the Republicans did and it will take time to clean it up...after that, natural cycle will bring things back to a reasonable level...and Obama will get all the credit. this has happened many times...for both Clinton and Reagan in their first terms.
If the economy recovers by 2011..
That's like someone in 1929 saying: "If the economy recovers by 1931, Hoover will do just fine."
What did Jim Cramer call it on the Colbert Report? If I recall correctly, it went something like: "The end of the western financial system as we knew it."
Not to be all doom and gloom or anything but even after lopping a third off the top of the markets, the markets are still grossly overvalued by historical standards. Before things recover, expect to see Microsoft with a single-digit P/E and a double-digit yield.
The last time we went through anything similar, the markets shed 25 years of growth. Who wants to party likes it's 1983?
Obama will win now because of the bad economy and because of McCain's unfitness for the Presidency. But 2012 looks much tougher.
If world oil production starts declining while Obama is still in his first term then the economy in 2012 will not be in recovery mode.
What we are seeing right now with financial problems is piker stuff as compared to what it'll be like when world oil production starts going down its final decline path.
So when does world oil production peak? I think we are close.
Well I agree with your last post...that's an "if"...if things stay about the same as now, in regard to oil prices, Obama will be fine as the markets will stabilize.
"So when does world oil production peak?"
Key question. I can't find a consensus in the literature...so...
As far as Obama radical/militant supporters...I can't speak for the entire nation, but in the DC metro area the people I find who are the strongest most aggressive public supporters of Obama are white college students from America, George Washington, Georgetown, and George Mason...especially the first two schools.
I have seen white male and female students shout down and harass young white McCain supports in public places twice. I have never seen something like this in my life, over a presidential election...at least not with people this young and when religious issues were not involved (okay maybe environmental...but not where I have lived).
Black folks talk about Obama, usually among themselves, they might defend him somewhat in front of whites...but most of the time when blacks talk about him in public it is not in a loud way or not in a detailed defense...more like "Oh...bro...I don't know if THEY are going to let him win...you hear what McCain said?"
I saw a white girl from George Washington on the metro get in a white man's face (I think he was a DOD contractor/civilian employee) when he was talking to a co-worker about the campaign...speaking in praise of McCain, and she said "I guess I can't understand how good it must feel to support a warmongering, senile, racist..."
I was just sitting there reading my book and could not believe it. That immediately started an argument. The white guy was about 40, the girl was likely 25 or so.
No black person would do that on the DC metro, I just can't see it.
Young white kids in urban areas act like Obama is Jesus.
I support Obama, but he is a Pol. He is not a god. He is a politician. I think people need to keep things in perspective.
I think some people have a great need for a religion substitute. They've lost faith in the ancient myths. They invent new myths to believe in because they want to feel good or more security. The irrationality costs us all.
There's a limit to what we can expect from humans. Our evolutionary past burdens us with all sorts of cognitive flaws.
Yes, I agree with your last statement completely. Some of us do need to believe in something that can't "let us down" that we can rationalize...