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2008 August 13 Wednesday
Whites Become Minority In America In 2042

Hispanic children will exceed white children in number.

Minorities, about one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become a majority by 2042 and be 54 percent of U.S. residents by 2050.

The shift will happen sooner among children, 44 percent of whom are minority. By 2023, more than half are expected to be minority, and by 2050, the proportion will be 62 percent.

The largest share of children, 39 percent, is projected to be Hispanic, followed by non-Hispanic whites (38 percent), African Americans (11 percent) and Asians (6 percent).

The academic performance of Hispanics is so far below whites that basically America is dumbing down. The economic effects of this trend will become more pronounced with time.

A larger fraction of whites will be pulled into jobs such as medicine that involve servicing other groups that do not produce as many people skilled enough to do those jobs. That pulls skilled people away from wealth-producing jobs such as engineering, software development, and management of industrial enterprises. This will cause per capita incomes to stagnate and decline.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2008 August 13 10:45 PM  Immigration Demographics


Comments
Lord Vader said at August 14, 2008 7:55 AM:

"The shift will happen sooner among children, 44 percent of whom are minority. By 2023, more than half are expected to be minority, and by 2050, the proportion will be 62 percent.

The largest share of children, 39 percent, is projected to be Hispanic, followed by non-Hispanic whites (38 percent), African Americans (11 percent) and Asians (6 percent)."


According to Ed Rubinstein at VDare, minorities will be 60% of all births by 2021 and a majority by 2012.

What is interesting is that the bulk of the decrease in the white percentage of births appears to be coming from Hispanic illegals, and not legal immigrants.

Without the (at least) 400,000 anchor babies born per year, whites would be a little over 60% all children under 5.

The number of black births is down over 10% since the early 90's and the number of Asian births is up by only 60,000 in the past 15 years.

If we could get rid of the anchor babies, we would buy ourselves quite a bit more time since illegal aliens seem to have a higher birth rate than legal Hispanics.

It will be interesting to see next year if states like Oklahoma and Arizona have seen Hispanic births stall because of their pro-enforcement laws.

Marc said at August 14, 2008 8:41 AM:

I wonder if and when we'll start seeing white flight into other countries. There are 200 million white people in America. Australia might have its hands full in another 50 years. :)

c.o. jones said at August 14, 2008 9:18 AM:

It's hard to imagine that only a little more than 50 years ago, southern California was known as "Iowa on the Pacific" thanks to all the transplanted midwesterners. 50 years from now, it will almost certainly be Mexican, at least culturally and linguistically. There could even be some pressure, I imagine, for some sort of semi-autonomous governance, if not out-and-out secession. That, of course, presents an interesting scenario: would the federal government use force to keep southern ("Alta") California in the union?

As larger and larger portions of the country become majority Hispanic, I think you'll see Anglos self-segregate, gravitating to the midwest and the south, possibly the Pacific northwest. Economically, the Hispanic-majority regions of the country will resemble Mexico and Central America, so once the Anglos have moved away and taken their productive habits and culture with them, there will once again be large scale migration of Hispanics to areas that are economically healthy.

Actually, about the best we can hope for is a "soft landing" with our country becoming another Brazil, i.e. a mediocre country that is advanced in some regards, and a 3rd world toilet in others. At worst, we become Mexico's northernmost state, but with an important difference: we've made a lot of enemies over the last 75 years, and there will be any number of countries that will be only too happy to take a poke at us militarily when they think we're weak, which we will be.

Lord Vader said at August 14, 2008 9:46 AM:

"That, of course, presents an interesting scenario: would the federal government use force to keep southern ("Alta") California in the union?"

They might but they shouldn't.

We'd be better off right now letting California and parts of South Texas secede and evacuating the white residents (except for the whites in San Francisco) in order to maintain a more homogenous nation.

Even without California and South Texas, the US would still be a huge, livable country. Many great nations such as Rome and Imperial Russia have lost territory and gained territory over the course of history and lived to fight another day. Losing the Southwest would not be a nation destroying disaster.

c.o. jones said at August 14, 2008 12:38 PM:

Lord Vader -

You are correct about a loss of territory not necessarily being a diabling hit. Especially if, as I expect will be the case, those areas are an economic drain.

I suppose the problems that could result would be, roughly in order of seriousness:

1. If the breakaway territory were to seek incorporation into Mexico, then that country's political leadership would be emboldened to continue its policy of colonizing the USA, and probably even ramp it up, sensing that they would have demographic momentum on their side. It would be a humiliation of heretofore unseen proportions: the USA could defeat the USSR without firing a shot, but was powerless to stop a bunch of busboys, maids, carwasheros, and gang bangers from taking its land. Even though by then most white Americans would not give 2 craps about California, the loss of face would be so drastic as to perhaps foment rioting, and maybe even a crisis of confidence that would bring down the government in Washington DC.

2. The territories would declare themselves to be an independent state. We would then have 2 parasitic countries to our immediate south, with both of them competing to see who could export more of its people.

3. Loss of some productive infrastructure, such as the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports. Of course, by then it could be that the ports will be so poorly run due to corruption and local Los Angeles politics that shippers will have long since diverted cargo to other, better run ports.

I put the life expectancy of our country at about 50-100 years. If minorities are going to be 54% of the population in 35 years, then it is reasonable to expect they will be 75% or more 75 years from now, and the great majority of those will be Hispanic. Anyone who thinks that we will still be an English-speaking representative republic with a free-market economy (not that we really have one now) is simply kidding themselves.

Flight said at August 14, 2008 12:52 PM:

Read Thomas Chittum's "Civil War II" Interesting stuff:

www.timebomb2000.com/misc/CWII.pdf

Robert Hume said at August 14, 2008 2:31 PM:

I hate to say it, but I no longer feel the need to "Save the Union" that many felt in the Civil War. That patriotic spirit was certainly rooted in love for English-American co-ethnics in the South. That feeling is gone and there is little reason to be against the splitting up of the US. I expect that all ethnicities in the US feel that way now.

This, of course, means that all of us in the US won't be willing to sacrifice, and so the society as a whole will decline. For a while the whites will continue to sacrifice; but that will soon come to an end.

We'll just "sort out" in some way. Whites will lose because we used to be free to live anywhere in the US. Now we will only be able to live in some restricted areas. Seems like other minorities will be free to go back to a homeland where they overwhelmingly dominate: South Africa, China, etc. But likely there will be no such large place for whites.

Sleep said at August 14, 2008 2:50 PM:

It's almost unimaginable that Hispanics could outnumber whites that soon. Has any other nation changed so quickly, outside of an invasion?

Only 11 percent black, eh? The Hispanics are growing so quickly that even blacks shrink relative to them. I wonder if blacks and whites will join an alliance against the Hispanics ... something like this has happened in NZ, where Maoris are the largest minority and are generally conservative on social issues and immigration, so that they have formed an alliance with whites to cut back on Asian immigration. In America, blacks seem to be thinking so negatively that they'll do anything to harm whites even if it harms them even more. But that could change. And I don't think at all that white conservatives would reject black support ... they would be overwhelmingly eager to have blacks on their side as they've been trying to do for 40 years now.

Lord Vader said at August 14, 2008 3:52 PM:

"If minorities are going to be 54% of the population in 35 years,"

Our leadership is so incompetent, arrogant, and foolhardy that I believe things will fall apart completely a lot sooner than the year 2042. The demographic trend line may yet be broken, but breaking it is unlikely to very pretty.

Dave said at August 14, 2008 5:55 PM:

Yes Sleep, other nations have changed that fast, many European nations.
France, Britain, Netherlands, and others.
Last year was the first year ever when 'white' births in London were a minority, this is even more extreme when you consider many people labelled 'white' are also recent immmigrants, only 60 years ago there was hardly any non English people in England.

LarryO said at August 14, 2008 9:08 PM:

The best long term solution is genetic manipulation to increase IQ and other favorable traits. If we can't accomplish that in the next 30 years we are f%$#&d.

mike said at August 14, 2008 9:41 PM:

"A larger fraction of whites will be pulled into jobs such as medicine that involve servicing other groups that do not produce as many people skilled enough to do those jobs. That pulls skilled people away from wealth-producing jobs such as engineering, software development, and management of industrial enterprises. This will cause per capita incomes to stagnate and decline."

ditto the police - more intelligence and training is needed to cope with the demands of modern policing and its soaking up a growing number of relatively intelligent caucasian workers in most western countries.

Diego said at January 24, 2009 4:46 PM:

My thoughts of becoming an American ex-pat still runs through my mind. I've always considered my relocating to Madrid, Spain. Tragically, they've got non-white immigration issues as well. It just 'blows me away' how that capital city is having its urban ambiance ruined via multi-cultural, corporate globalism. In 1997, Spain had only a 2% non-European population. It has since grown to a staggering 10% in a nation of 39-40 million Spaniards.The depositing of non-whites into the entire European Continent is being done with intent no doubt.

There is essentially no white land that hasn't been affected. Having purchased a spinning globe not long ago, I look at it daily thinking,'where can I relocate within the Western world?' It's discouraging right now.

Rusty said at August 4, 2009 11:51 AM:

It's just simple math. When about 100 million Latin Americans cross the border into America the last 30 years you will get a new majority. I'm pro immigration and sort of liberal but the last 20 years has been a travesty. And this massive Latin immigration is not slowing down at all. I believe they will be majority in 10 years. There is nothing stopping them from comming here and they tend to be younger parents and have larger families. It's one of about three issues I would say conservatives are right. And the Republicans ironically are to blame the most because they wanted all that cheap/free labor to build out the economy gangbusters. Maybe America will adjust just fine but in 100 years America will have 500 million residents just from simple birth rate. That is the real issue with me rather than what is the skin color make up of those people. Latin people tend to have good family values (but media focuses on gang members) so I'm not worried about Latins taking over southern America. But once you reach 400-500 million people then a billion is just a given even if you have low birth rate. Over population in China and India has led to enourmous social problems that can never be solved. I feel America will drift to sort of a third world country that still has a very productive elite class. Too many people will burden the system and no way can you sustain 500 million to a billion people in the future. But...don't ever underestimate a massive flight back out of the USA if other nations ramp up big while USA just is average or falters. I worked with lots of foreign people who eventually went back home because their countries are ramping up and they want to capitalize on that frontier. Tons of people could easily go back just as easily as they came. For instance, if Mexico ever got it's act together it's actually a beautiful country with fantastic natural resources. Lots of Mexicans would flock back if Mexico ever became a great country for most citizens to live.

PeaceLoveUnderstanding said at August 4, 2009 12:05 PM:

We need to put the brakes on immigration super fast. It has nothing to do with race or not wanting people. We can proudly declare we are the least racist nation on earth. Every nation is super racist and nationalistic. At least America is the least racist and that is some good thing to claim. Stopping immigration is about energy. This country is by far the biggest consumer of fossil fuels. The last thing this planet needs is people flocking into the nation where its individuals drink fossil fuels like elephants eat grass. The census bureau says we will have 420 million people in 2050 (not that far off). It will likely be closer to 500 million if we don't stop immigration. 100 million people in this country were not born here or are second generation. We're good. We got a nice clan going and now that Hispanics will one day be the biggest ethnic group (even if they stopped immigration to zero tomorrow) we can say stopping immigration isn't a racial issue. This planet can not handle 500-700 million Americans. We consume at a rate that no other nation can come remotely close, per person. This is one nation that cannot afford to be as big as China and India some day. Nobody ever talks about the over population of America but it's coming sooner and faster than most realize. 40 years ago there were about 150 million people here. 40 years from now there will be close to 500 million.


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