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2008 July 30 Wednesday
Big Decline Seen In US Illegal Alien Population

Our rabble rousing demands for tougher immigration law enforcement have begun to pay off in a big way. A new study by Steven A. Camarota and Karen Jensenius at the Center for Immigration Studies finds that the illegal immigrant population is down by 1.3 million since an August 2007 peak and that tougher enforcement of immigration laws is a substantial cause of the decline.

Monthly data collected by the Census Bureau through May 2008 shows a significant decline in the number of less-educated, young Hispanic immigrants in the country. The evidence indicates that the illegal immigrant population may have declined by over one million in the last year. There are strong indications immigration enforcement is responsible for at least part of the decline. The economy also is likely playing a role.

Among the findings:

  • Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has declined by 11 percent through May 2008 after hitting a peak in August 2007.
  • The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since last summer, from 12.5 million to 11.2 million today.
  • The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least seven times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.
  • One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be affected; the legal immigrant population continues to grow.
  • Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.
  • The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the last recession, and officially the country has not yet entered a recession.
  • While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the economic slow-down is likely to be at least partly responsible for the decline in the number of illegal immigrants.
  • There is good evidence that the illegal population grew last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.
  • If the decline were sustained, it would reduce the illegal population by one-half in the next five years.

We need to wage another political battle in 2009 to prevent President Barack Obama from getting the chance to sign an immigration amnesty bill. We scared Congress out of going through with an amnesty in its last 2 attempts. I think we have better than 50:50 chances of stopping it in the next round. If we stop the next illegal immigrant amnesty attempt then we will be able to force continued tough immigration law enforcement and continued decline in the illegal immigrant population.

The next thing we need to move on is to put a stop to chain migration where people keep bringing over relatives from extended families.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2008 July 30 11:05 PM  Immigration Demographics


Comments
loki on the run said at July 31, 2008 7:58 AM:

Oh my god, there seems to be a correlation between illegal immigration and the Arctic melt-back over the last few years, culminating in 2007 which saw unprrrreeecccceeedddeented levels of melt-back.

Thank god the illegals are going home. We can look forward to more ice in the arctic now.

Laughing so I don't cry said at July 31, 2008 8:40 AM:

Speaking of climate change, it appears that blacks are "hit hardest" by global warming:

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080729130950.aspx

It never ends. Apparently blacks can't seem to prevent themselves from getting AIDS either:

http://www.blackaids.org/ShowArticle.aspx?articletype=SITEFEATURE&articleid=576&pagenumber=2

"As in other parts of the world, Black women in the U.S. often face increased vulnerability to HIV due to lack of a perception of power in sexual relationships and low self-esteem. Many cannot insist on abstinence or the use of condoms because of fear of emotional or physical abuse by their partners. Development of female-initiated prevention methods is not only a critical priority for Black women overseas, but also for Black women here at home."

"...emotional or physical abuse..." No kidding.


JSBolton said at July 31, 2008 6:54 PM:

It's interesting that they say ~1 million illegals were here over the last year in hopes of getting amnesty, who have since left.
There are probably several million more who are here just because hardly any local governments are unwilling to give special tolerance, especially regarding use of fake ID'd, no licenses, no insurance, etc. This may also be one reason unemployment is not rising much. If you go into a recession, at the very bottom of it, one employed illegal deported opens a job for someone else. Otherwise it tends to be two illegals need to be deported to open one position.

JSBolton said at July 31, 2008 6:55 PM:

It's interesting that they say ~1 million illegals were here over the last year in hopes of getting amnesty, who have since left.
There are probably several million more who are here just because hardly any local governments are unwilling to give special tolerance, especially regarding use of fake ID'd, no licenses, no insurance, etc. This may also be one reason unemployment is not rising much. If you go into a recession, at the very bottom of it, one employed illegal deported opens a job for someone else. Otherwise it tends to be two illegals need to be deported to open one position.

Wolf-Dog said at July 31, 2008 9:11 PM:

Actually, as the U.S. economy becomes weaker while many emerging countries are growing, the incentive to immigrate to the United States declines. Thus in addition to the illegal immigrants, even the legal immigrant population might be declining. Already many emerging economies are attracting English speaking skilled technicians, meaning that the U.S. will attract a lot less of high income legal immigrants. This portends low real estate prices in the United States.

Audacious Epigone said at August 1, 2008 3:48 AM:

The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least seven times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.

Looking back to 1954 and Operation Wetback:

The INS claimed as many as 1,300,000, though the number officially apprehended did not come anywhere near this total. The INS estimate rested on the claim that most aliens, fearing apprehension by the government, had voluntarily repatriated themselves before and during the operation. The San Antonio district, which included all of Texas outside of El Paso and the Trans-Pecos, had officially apprehended slightly more than 80,000 aliens, and local INS officials claimed that an additional 500,000 to 700,000 had fled to Mexico before the campaign began.
Take the low-end figure from the San Antonio district and we get 7.25 aliens leaving of their own volition for each forcibly deported. The simple logical conclusion that making it more difficult to live in the US illegally will discourage people from living illegally in the US is buttressed by historical precedent. This problem is clearly solvable.

Toadal said at August 1, 2008 10:31 PM:

My wife is Chinese and detests California's illegal immigration financial subsidies. She does not like the deterioration of the Bay Area since she arrived over 20 years ago. We do our best not to patronize businesses we suspect of employing illegals, even illegal Chinese, however this requires our constant vigilance.

Toadal said at August 1, 2008 11:01 PM:

Wolf-Dog said: Actually, as the U.S. economy becomes weaker while many emerging countries are growing, the incentive to immigrate to the United States declines. Thus in addition to the illegal immigrants, even the legal immigrant population might be declining.

Yes, the US deepening economic recession decreases the incentive to remain in the US. Since Open-Borders controlled big businesses and federal and state legislatures, through their hiring discrimination and inaction, have pissed away what goodwill the American people held for them, in the future those whose skills allow them to get up and go, will have got up and left.


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