2008 April 08 Tuesday
Big Apple Safe Enough For Upper Class White Baby Boom
Drive up the price of real estate so high that the dangerous people leave and lock up lots of people. The result? A white upper class goes on a baby boom in a safe environment.
The number of children younger than 5 in Manhattan has increased about 30 percent since 2000, said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. The increase is driven by white toddlers, whose numbers have gone up by 60 percent, according to the 2000 census and the 2006 American Community Survey, he said. For the first time since the 1960s, young white children outnumber their black or Hispanic counterparts in Manhattan, demographers say.
"It's surprising," Frey said. "It's a selective part of the white population, a lifestyle of people who want to have children and can afford to live in the city."
Indeed, according to Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College, the median household income for this group of children was $280,000 in 2005.
It took a lot of prison building and aggressive policing to create the environment where these members of the upper class felt safe enough to start popping out the babies in a city.
To all you who can't afford to spend your way to safety: You think evil thoughts and the elites look down on you.
Randall is being quite provocative here. Rising real-estate prices are an unavoidable consequence of social gentrification and more productive jobs, which were clearly the driving factor in this demographic development. When real estate becomes more expensive due to speculation or adverse institutional changes (California Prop. 13, Japan in the 80's etc.), economic activity falters and family formation is discouraged as well.
An article in yesterday's "wall Street Journal" describes how Italy has taken a different approach to law enforcement and prison overcrowding - simply let the criminals go free (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120760093089595927.html). This has resulted in a wave of bank robberies and other crimes. The article even describes how you can murder your cheating spouse and get away with only a couple of years in the slammer, or maybe no time at all! Or you can just eat yourself out of jail - criminals are routinely released because of "health problems" such as obesity. I wonder if this sort of stuff plays any role at all in Italy's notoriously low fertility rate.
Another reason may be that those parents would previously have moved out to the suburbs when their children were of school age in order to take advantage of the good schools. But now even many of those schools are flooded with Hispanics who have multiple families in large suburban houses. Hence, if they are going to pay for private schools they might as well live in the city. Some serious sociology or investigative reporting should be able to check this hypothesis.
Robert Hume, gentrification of city centers and migration of lower-income residents to the suburbs are complementary phenomena. "White flight" to the suburbs is a very peculiar phenomenon in the Western world which largely defies economic logic (poor people are clearly worse off in inner-city ghettoes compared to semi-rural areas, while the reverse is true for higher-income people), so it would not be surprising to see it reversed.
Anon wrote: "Rising real-estate prices are an unavoidable consequence of social gentrification and more productive jobs, which were clearly the driving factor in this demographic development." , which were clearly the driving factor in this demographic development."
Overall correct, but although your comment that these high paying jobs are "productive", certainly applies to Silicon Valley where the people there are innovating with their great work ethic in all areas, from software to biotech to solar energy, greatly benefiting human kind, in the case of the super-class of Manhattan with the above-mentioned median annual household income of $0.28E+06, these jobs are almost certainly not very productive but destructive for the nation. Strictly speaking, many of these Manhattanites became super-class from unscrupulously treating the sub-prime people as sub-humans. To be more exact, the jobs of this super-class of Manhattan were productive for themselves, because they did make money for themselves, but they did this money from other people's money, since these "other" sub-people had a median IQ that was not high enough to comprehend the machinations in 2003. There was a similarity with the dotcom bubble in the following sense: the Wall Street elite that was instrumental in issuing the new internet stocks between 1995 and 1999 was absolutely sure that 90 % of these stocks would not survive, but thanks to their high verbal IQs and their extensive vocabulary that they acquired thanks to their Ivy League liberal arts education, they basically manipulated the nation into buying high from them, and selling very low.
I have a relative doing this. The kids hate it, though they don't know it yet. They're locked at home after school. It's mostly for the parents, who don't want to believe they have kids.