2008 March 30 Sunday
Muslims On The Rise In Russia

Writing in a blog on the Foreign Policy web site Henry Bowles sees the rising Muslim population more in terms of bad nationalists getting mad about it rather than Russians getting shafted by a growing hostile and culturally and religiously incompatible population.

Ready for Russia's very own Oriana Fallacis and Jean LePens? If population trends continue at the current rate, Muslims could outnumber ethnic Russians in 30 years, al-Jazeera reports. More Russians are dying each year than being born, due in large measure to the popularity of abortion (Russian women had almost 13 abortions for every 10 live births in 2003), alcohol, and suicide.

It matters less to Bowles that Russians might end up living as Dhimmis subservient to Muslim rule under Sharia law. No, what is important to Bowles is to pose as morally superior to Oriana Fallaci and Jean LePen. This is very white of him. An opportunity to signal one's higher status vis a vis other whites presents itself. Gotta jump at that chance and look down on the white red necks.

If Russians want to prevent becoming a minority under Muslim rule then Bowles thinks they are engaging in hysteria and sees Russian nationalists as "the usual suspects".

Predictably, the usual suspects are speaking up:

Many ethnic Russians are terrified at the prospect of becoming a minority in their own country. Alexander Belov, from the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, said: "History is a fight between races and religions. "It's the law of nature ... people are used to being with people like themselves, speaking the language their mothers taught them.”

We’ve recently seen domestic politics polarized by nativist hysteria in France, Denmark, the Netherlands, and elsewhere in Western Europe. But at least this is occurring within democratic systems with moderate political parties and strong protections for minority rights, where the extreme right can only do so much damage. It won't be that way in increasingly autocratic Russia, however, where there aren't established moderating forces in civil society.

The reactions of European and American elites to the problems posed by Muslim immigration demonstrate one reason why we can't allow that immigration to happen in the first place. The elites will see the resulting problems as caused by the ignorance and lack of submission of the existing inferior lower classes. You get blamed. You get searched in airports. You get blamed. You get forced to make accommodations. You get blamed. You get condescended to.

Update: One point that Foreign Policy might want to address if they wanted to be serious about Russia's demographic problems: How would the security of the United States be harmed the large Russian nuclear weapons arsenal came under Muslim control 50 years from now?

Update II: I say that we can't trust our elites. Some might think I'm being a fringe kook to talk like that. But Dutch businesses are threatening to sue Geert Wilders for damages should Muslim nations boycott the Netherlands in response to this film.

Dutch businesses Saturday threatened to sue far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders if his anti-Islam film led to a commercial boycott, as several more Muslim countries condemned it.

"I don't know if Wilders is rich, or well-insured, but in the case of a boycott, we would look to see if we could make him bear responsibility," Bernard Wientjes, chairman of the Dutch employers' organisation VNO-NCW, told the newspaper Het Financieel Dagblad.

So they see their profits as more important than our right to free speech. You get forced to make accommodations to immigrants who don't want you to be free. If you don't do this and sales suffer then you get blamed.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2008 March 30 05:27 PM  Civilizations Clash Of


Comments
Wolf-Dog said at March 30, 2008 6:53 PM:

But the main issue for the West, is the strategic and tactical implications of the demographic changes in Russia. This issue must be discussed. Given the natural resources and the military might of Russia, if Russia becomes an Islamic country by 2030, this will have some implications for the rest of the world. Since Geert Wilders is only 44 years old now, by 2030, he will be 66 years old, and he will have very few places left to hide at that time (unless, of course, if he repents and converts to Islam.)

anonymous said at March 30, 2008 8:20 PM:

Russia in 2030? France and England will be muslim controlled nations before then if things continue on their present course.

YIH said at March 30, 2008 8:28 PM:

I'll say it, I'm 'spamming' the link to ''Fitna''. I HATE doing it, but it MUST be done.
http://rapidshare.com/files/103626460/Fitna-English_001.avi
Copy and share the link! DO IT!!!

JSBolton said at March 30, 2008 11:43 PM:

Russia happens to have had a low birth rate combined with a high death rate for many years.
Change the sign on each of those trends, and the projection turns to mush.
Already they have eliminated state funded abortions for the most part.
Since the Russian people are not highly resistant to despotic rule, unless it is a communist one which has ground on far too long,
there is no reason for the power-greedy to feel the need to stoke conflict by accomodation
of immigration of Islamic hostiles.
Therefore one might predict that Russia will deport as many as needed, and bar others,
to improve their long-term security prospects.

JSBolton said at March 30, 2008 11:43 PM:

Russia happens to have had a low birth rate combined with a high death rate for many years.
Change the sign on each of those trends, and the projection turns to mush.
Already they have eliminated state funded abortions for the most part.
Since the Russian people are not highly resistant to despotic rule, unless it is a communist one which has ground on far too long,
there is no reason for the power-greedy to feel the need to stoke conflict by accomodation
of immigration of Islamic hostiles.
Therefore one might predict that Russia will deport as many as needed, and bar others,
to improve their long-term security prospects.

Kenelm Digby said at March 31, 2008 3:19 AM:

Randall,
It must be remembered that the actual 'real' Russian people (ie the descendants of the original Slavic peoples who were first known to history clustereda round the Pripyet marshes)were only ever a small fraction of the many, many different peoples comprising the population of the 'Russian Federation'.
In fact,much of the territory of 'Russia' was only conquered from indigenous muslim peoples in fairly recent times.

Big Bill said at March 31, 2008 5:05 AM:

I wish that someone would do a Monty Pythonesque video of the Muslim Invasion of Europe in the eighth Century. Some standup liberal like Bowles spouting the wonders of Islamic rule, how the architecture was going to improve, how their learning was so much better, how the races would get along in the new multicultural world ruled by the new Islamic masters, "I for one welcome our new alien masters", etc.

Meanwhile as fighting gets closer and closer his body parts are chopped off by stray scimitar blows a la The Holy Grail.

Ned said at March 31, 2008 5:19 AM:

Russia is in trouble. The demographics are bad (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia). Muslims make up about 10-15% of the Russian population and are increasing rapidly. The fertility of the Slavic population of Russia has increased from 1.20 in 2000 to 1.37 in 2007 but is still well below replacement value (2.10). Plus, look at a map - Russia is surrounded by enemies. The Eastern European countries bitterly resent their half century of communist domination and would love to stick it to the Russians. Ditto for the broad swath of Islamic countries from Turkey to the Chinese border. Then, of course, there's China herself - certainly no long-term friend of Russia. Siberia has a large Chinese population and may be difficult for the Russians to hold on to. The Russians I spoke with when I visited the country last year were well aware of these problems and were concerned about them. They are doing OK now because of the oil and gas revenue, but they know they will be in big trouble when that runs out. I think Putin is a rather moderate nationalist-authoritarian response to these problems and is doing the best he can under difficult circumstances. Is he corrupt? Sure, but corruption has always been the case in Russia, whether under communists or Tsars. The mypoic Western leaders should quit hectoring him about "democracy" and begin considering how they would react if one day the churches of the Kremlin are turned into mosques.

kurt9 said at March 31, 2008 9:06 AM:

Kenelm is right.

Much of what is called "Russia" was traditionally muslim peoples until the slavs took them over in the last 2-3 centuries. Perhaps the muslim minorities and immigrants consider this to be a sort of "reconquista" on their part against the slavic oppressors. As to the progression of sharia law, is it not likely that the Central Asian countries (the "stans") should be considered the bell-weather for this? My understanding is that the stans are like 80% muslim, yet none of them have sharia law or even require that women cover their hair. Tadjikstan has had some muslim fanaticism, but the other four have very little in the way of fanaticism. It is worth noting that the Tadjiks are Persian people and the other four stans are of Turkic people.

The Tartars and the people to the south-east of them are the key people to watch. Most of the "Russian" muslims are Tartars and these other people. If they get an affinity for Islamic rule and push for sharia law, then Russia is in trouble. If they don't, Russia is probably OK.

I understand that Moscow itself has 2 million muslims living in its metro area, out of a total population of 11 million.

I read Robert Forrigno's "Prayer for the Assassin", which is about a islamicized North America. If you take this story and switch the role of Russia in place of the U.S., you get a plausible near-future thriller novel.

Marc said at March 31, 2008 2:04 PM:

A couple of things.

One, regarding fertility rates, Wikipedia doesn't have the most up-to-date stats. The number wikipedia cites (1.39) for all of Russia is from the CIA World Factbook, which bases its figures on projections made several years beforehand. The birth rate has surged in Russia over the past few years, particularly in 2007, when it rose over 125,000 from 2006 to 1.6 million. That puts Russia's fertility rate closer to 1.6 than 1.4. (I haven't seen any tfr numbers from Russia for 2007, just absolute numbers. But looking at the stats from the late 90's - early 00's, dividing the absolute number of births by 1 million gives you something pretty close to what is listed as the tfr. It's actually pretty convenient.)

Also, births in Russia in January 2008 numbered 16,000, or 12%, more than in January 2007, so the increase appears to be continuing. Since this increase coincides with Putin's government's focus on the issue, it's reasonable to assume that it's tied to government incentives, and so I see no reason why non-Christian Russians should be over-represented among the increase in births.

Two, where is the evidence that Russia's Muslim population is surging? Growing, yes, but surging? The wikipedia page has fertility stats for various Russian populations according to the 2002 census. The single largest Muslim ethnic group, the Tartars (4% of the Russian population), have a TFR for all women over 15 of 1.71, which is higher than the Russian average of 1.45 (again, this is 2002) but hardly stratospheric. (In fact, Ukrainian women in Russia over 15 averaged more children than did the Tartars in 2002.)

Yes, the Islamic populations tend to have higher fertility rates overall than the Christian ones; the highest fertility rate in Russia in 2002 belonged to the Islamic Ingush, and it stood at 2.3. But that isn't really that high, and the Ingush make up .3% of the Russian population.

I doubt Russia is going to be Muslim by 2030.

mike said at April 1, 2008 1:33 AM:

Russia's gas reserves are massive, not to mention her forests, which might be used for biofuel if the oil runs out. I doubt Russia's mineral resources are close to being spent either.

I don't think resource shortages are something Russia needs to worry about, its other people taking them over (eg the Chinese) that's the main threat.

Kenelm Digby said at April 1, 2008 3:32 AM:

Although never mentioned - because it is 'swamped' in official statistics and those 'in the know' maintain a rigid silence, the actual number of persons of Anglo-Saxon descent in England is falling precipitously and has been falling since at least 1972.
A case in point, the British Registrar General recently released statistics stating that 25% of all live births in England were to foreign born women (if we add in 2nd and 3rd genration immigrants the figure must exceed 50%), and in Greater London the poportion is over 50%.
Of course all this points to an non-English (and very heavily muslim) majority by 2040.
Already the most popular forename for baby boys is Mohammed.
And I doubt if France is any much better.

Statistics said at April 1, 2008 7:15 AM:

Kenelm Digby: In various newspapers it is written that Prince Charles became a proponent of Islam, and that he strongly favors incorporating the Sharia laws. If you do a Google search (with the words Prince Charles Islam), you will find many articles about Prince Charles praising Islam.

J. Wesley said at April 2, 2008 7:14 PM:

They're on the rise in much of Eastern Europe. With some countries in the region becoming more prosperous, Arabs and other Muslims are emigrating in search of education or work. At the same time, birth rates among indigenous Muslims are really high. And in Ukraine, for example, you have a lot of Tatars moving back into Crimea from their Stalinist exile.

On the flip side, you see very few babies on the streets of Bucharest, Kiev or Budapest. Visitors with more than three children are goggled at, because no one outside the villages has so many kids. Eastern European culture is going to fundamentally change in the next 30 years. . . I was just blogging on Russia's demographic decline myself. It's bad mojo.


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