2007 December 18 Tuesday
People Exaggerate Their Support Of Obama To Pollsters

Would liberal Democrats say they support Barack Hussein Obama in order to seem not racist while in reality not intending to vote for him? Sure looks that way.

A new national study of voters who say they might vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses shows a striking disconnect between their explicit and implicit preferences, according to University of Washington researchers.

When asked who they would vote for, Sen. Barack Obama held a 42 percent to 34 percent margin over Sen. Hilary Clinton. Former senator John Edwards was in third place with 12 percent. However, when the same people took an Implicit Association Test that measures their unconscious or automatic preferences, Clinton was the runaway winner, the favored candidate of 48 percent of the voters. Edwards was second with 27 percent and Obama had 25 percent.

Bethany Albertson, a UW assistant political science professor and Anthony Greenwald, a UW psychology professor and inventor of the Implicit Association Test, emphasized that their participants were not a representative sample of Democrats but were self-selected volunteers who took an experimental test over the Web. The data came from 926 people age 18 and over who took the test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 5. Of that total, 687 people said they might vote in the Democratic primaries.

“In the past, poll numbers have often overestimated support for black candidates when compared to their actual vote percentages,” said Albertson. “Findings of this study suggest that this familiar pattern may be about to repeat itself in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries.”

Who will Hillary Clinton face in the 2008 general election? Fred Thompsom? Mick Huckabee? Mitt Romney?

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2007 December 18 10:47 PM  Politics Human Nature

Cody said at December 19, 2007 12:04 AM:

In an alternate universe where life is fair and just, Ron Paul.

D Flinchum said at December 20, 2007 2:57 PM:

Nothing new here.

Back in 1989, L. Douglas Wilder, the black Democratic Lt Gov of VA, went into the Governor's raise waaaaaay ahead of Marshall Coleman, the white Republican former Attorney General. Polls up to election day had Doug leading by 8 points or so. He won a squeeker, becoming the first black Governor in the US - in conservative VA!

Now it's possible, just possible, that folks "thought" they were Wilder supporters until they got into the privacy of the voting booth and then just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black man. What's more likely IMHO is that they never planned to vote for Wilder for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to his race, but wanted to "impress" the pollster (mostly media back then) with their open-mindedness, knowing full well that it was all put-on.

Stephen said at December 21, 2007 6:22 PM:

You seem to have made a mistake there Randall - you used Obama's middle name in the opening paragraph but seem to have forgotten to do the same for the four other candidates referred to in your closing paragraph. Let me fill them in for you:

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton
Fred Dalton Thompson
Michael Dale Huckabee
Willard Mitt Romney

That said, I'm having trouble seeing why you need to use anyone's middle name...

Bob Badour said at December 24, 2007 6:06 PM:

Perhaps more importantly, Stephen: Why would he need not to?

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