2007 June 07 Thursday
Heather Mac Donald: The Republicans’ Hispanic Delusion

Heather Mac Donald argues that Republicans who think they can convert Hispanics into Republicans are deluding themselves - and Heather is absolutely correct.

George Bush’s political strategists have long promoted amnesty for illegal aliens as a device for increasing the Republican vote among Hispanics. They also warn that denying rights to illegal aliens will hurt the GOP. A Hispanic backlash in California after Proposition 187 (the 1994 voter initiative that denied illegal aliens many publicly funded services) turned the state from red to blue, they claim; a similar rout awaits the party if it does not embrace liberal immigration policies.

There is scant evidence for either of these ideas. The 1986 amnesty signed by President Reagan did not trigger a Latino surge into the Republican Party. And California’s Hispanics leaned as strongly Democratic before Prop. 187 as after it. Hispanic voting patterns in California have held steady since 1988—they vote approximately two-to-one for Democratic presidential candidates. California’s shift from red to blue would have happened with or without Prop. 187, as defense-industry whites left the state, replaced by liberal high-tech professionals, and as the Hispanic portion of the electorate tripled from 7 percent to 21 percent.

Hispanics have about twice the illegitimacy rate of whites. They do poorly in school and earn much lower salaries on average. Therefore they make great supporters and users of the welfare state.

This attitude of entitlement—not only among illegal aliens but also among legal Hispanic immigrants and their children—extends to the full array of welfare programs. In fact, welfare use actually increases between the second and third generation of Mexican-Americans—to 31 percent of all third-generation Mexican-American households.

If you want your taxes to go up, your neighborhood to become less safe. your school's quality to decay, and your government to become more corrupt then support the immigration amnesty that Bush and the US Senate want to foist on you. If you are a masochist who doesn't think you deserve what you have then mass immigration of low IQ Third Worlders can deliver lots of lowered quality of life.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2007 June 07 12:01 AM  Immigration Societal Decay

dchamil said at June 7, 2007 5:55 AM:

Mexicans are about as likely to become Republicans as they are to become Protestants -- not likely at all.

D Flinchum said at June 7, 2007 2:21 PM:

Hold on, dchamil. I agree with you that the likelihood of a GOP conversion is extremely small; however, the born-again evangelicals have been making a dent in Hispanic circles.

M Marlowe said at June 7, 2007 6:39 PM:

Unfortunately the "evangelical dent in Hispanic circles" is mostly Pentecostal, which has little to do with traditional Protestantism. Not all non-Catholics can be called Protestants.

Mark said at June 7, 2007 6:45 PM:

It looks like the bill died!!!

Hopefully it's zombie remains don't pop back up.

Mark said at June 7, 2007 6:55 PM:

Just when I am so pissed off at the republicans than I am thinking of becoming a democrat, the democrats pull this amnesty nonsense, with that fool bush's support.

Fortunately, the bill looks DEAD. I want to dance on it's grave. Hopefully it stays dead. Unfortunately, I fear for the zombie that may dig its way out of that grave.

Craig said at June 9, 2007 11:08 AM:

The idea that newly amnestied Hispanics would become Republicans out of gratitude for the amnesty was always complete nonsense.

For one, we already have an example of that: Simpson-Mazzoli. The 1986 amnesty was supported overwhelmingly be Republicans and signed into law by Ronald Reagan. The result? Today, 20 of the 23 Hispanic members of congress are (very liberal) Democrats. The other 3? They're all Cuban. That gap is one that has existed for a long time - long before the current immigration debate.

When you're trying to convince me of something, don't show me polls of dubious merit - show me real world data, like the partisan gap that we can already see with our eyes. If it already isn't, it should be a maxim of leadership: Never base decisions on hypotheticals when there's perfectly good real-world examples staring you in the face. Maybe Bush could've used that one before deciding to invade Iraq.

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