2007 January 30 Tuesday
Grim Demographics Of Texas And California

The demographic trends in California and Texas are bad. The demographics of Texas are going Third World.

If current trends continue, Texas' work force will be less educated and less skilled. State services, already burdened, may be strained to a point never experienced before. The numbers provided by Murdock support the dire warnings:

Hispanics may represent 53 percent of the population by 2030, compared to 30.3 percent for Anglos and 9.2 percent for blacks.

More than half of Hispanics 25 and older had failed to finish high school in 2000; fewer than 20 percent had completed some college, and only about 10 percent had a college degree.

Hispanics could occupy 38 percent to 52 percent of the Texas work force by 2030.

By 2030, 16 percent to 20 percent of the population will be 65 or older, an increase of about 10 percent over 2000. Most will be Anglos. Of Texans older than 65 in 2000, 72.6 percent were Anglo, 16.7 percent Hispanic.

How will the high skilled, high productivity, wealth generating jobs get done? Answer: Fewer such jobs will get done. It is as simple as that.

Should we face reality and admit that racial differences in intelligence make the long running differences in school performance fated to continue? Texas State Senator Peter Gallego embraces the incredibly foolish liberal myth that education can make dumb people smart.

Sen. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine, said education is perhaps the most important issue facing the state.

"This is really a wake-up call," he said. "The conclusion is that by the year 2025, if we keep doing what we're doing now, Texas will have the economy of a Third Word country. I have a son who will be 21 in 2025, and that's just not the kind of Texas I want to turn over to him."

Gallego gets it half right. Yes, the Third World is coming to the First World. But education is an incredibly ineffectual way to deal with the demographic change that Texas is getting hit by. Texas is headed downward. Halting the current wave of low IQ immigrants would reduce the rate of descent. Anything short of that is just another demonstration of the intellectual and moral bankruptcy of our elites.

Also see my posts Texas Has Lowest High School Graduation Rates and Texas Standard School Test Results Are Warning On Immigration.

Steve Sailer takes a look at the teenage students and drop-outs of the 10 million population heavily Hispanic Los Angeles County and sees a grim future: What LA Schools Portend: A New, Unequal, People

If we assume that few of the dropouts would have broken 1000, then, as a rule of thumb, we can divide by two. Thus, only about seven or eight percent of the students who start 9th grade in the LAUSD will break 1000.

For all Los Angeles County public high school freshmen, only about ten percent will exceed 1000 by the time they leave high school.

Keep in mind that the SAT has been recentered and students who would have scored 890 before 1995 would score 1000 today. Also, 1000 is the 46th percentile and the mean among test takers is 1021. So when Steve says that only 10% of all LA County 18 year olds would score 1000 or higher if they took the SAT then he's not setting a high bar - at least not a high bar if we are looking at students as prospective workers in high tech industries which require high levels of skill and intellectual ability.

It's time for our elites to face up to the fact: millions of young people just aren't all that bright by the standards of the upper middle class. Passing laws based on the assumption that we live in Lake Wobegon where all the children are above average just makes life worse for kids on the left half of the bell curve.

The most important point to grasp in all this is that we can't take the success of Western societies for granted. Yes, we really can ruin them. Yes, our elites are terribly bad for the lies they tell and the damage they do with the policies they maintain for immigration and domestic social policy. America is dumbing down. So are some other Western nations.

Don't like who the American people chose for President? They'll make even worse choices in the future. Don't like the scores of students in your local school? More likely than not average scores in future students at those schools will decline. Don't like the simple-minded talk shows on TV or the radio? They'll become even simpler in the future. Don't like inefficient government workers or bank clerks or store clerks? They'll get dumber in the coming years. America will come to resemble more closely most of the rest of the world.

We are getting very close to DNA testing methods so cheap lots of genetic variations for intelligence will be found.

Also see Hispanic And Black High School Graduation Rates Very Low and America Becoming Dumb And Dumber.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2007 January 30 10:12 PM  Immigration Dumbing Down

John S Bolton said at January 30, 2007 11:02 PM:

On 12-9-06, the NYT reported, on page A16, the statements of Texas state officials, that Texas would have been 'poorer' by $17,700 per illegal from the 'gross state product'.
Do they expect the people to be so retarded as not to know that US and Texas per capita numbers are more than twice that level?
They've admitted that the illegal is less than half as high a contributor to output,
and expect people to believe that this is a way to get richer!
...as if the measure of wealth or income were not per person, but per jurisdiction!
They apparently expect people to believe that there are no consequences in terms of the redistributional features of the welfare state, from having large numbers of illegals and their dependents, with serious lack of control of the increase of those numbers on net public subsidy, who are sliding along below half the income levels of everyone else.

Kenelm Digby said at January 31, 2007 4:28 AM:

It is an unfortunate fact that the political class and the publications that they quote from in order to appear 'clever' ie 'The Economist' , 'The Wall street Journal' etc, seem to believe that the 'magic key' to 'ecomic prosperity' is to pack in as many warm bodies as possible into the tightese possible space, rather in the way that college students used to try to break the record of packing-in as many people into a phone booth as possible, as if the quantity "Warm body per square foot" had any value as an economic ndicator whatsoever.

Just how dumb are these people?

tony said at January 31, 2007 1:08 PM:

Regarding the imperviousness of IQ to educational input, how can the situation of Michael Oher be explained? He went from 90 to 110 after a couple of years training. I suspect that this was contrived to get him into colege, but surely IQ wouldnt be a criterion, rather knowledge and grades?

Randall Parker said at January 31, 2007 5:41 PM:


A few points:

Trans-racial adoption does not raise long term IQ.

If someone has a cold, is tired, malnourished, depressed, anxious, or just suffering from low blood sugar at the moment, they won't function as well mentally. So from one test taking to the next scores can vary considerably. Do you have on and off days in terms of your mental acumen? Imagine taking IQ tests on those on and off days.

Environment does not boost answers on the more g-loaded questions as it does the less g-loaded questions.


We are very poorly led. I used to think the leader types know more than I do. Now I am quite certain that I know more than they do.

RueHaxo said at January 31, 2007 8:53 PM:

Hopefully technology can mitigate the worst. Anyone have any idea how far off we are from genetically engineering higher IQs? John Derbyshire estimated 10 years a few weeks ago.

Big Bill said at February 1, 2007 4:26 AM:

Engineering a higher IQ? Makes me nervous. Real nervous. Take a predator that hunts alone and has managed to survive for millenia on sheer naked aggressiveness and stealth like a Bengal tiger. Now give him an IQ of 100. Do you feel safer?

People and cultures are the same way. There are sick human cultures that are self-limiting due to their sickness. Cultures that don't play well with others. Cultures that are built on ruthless totalitarianism. Making them smarter wouldn't make me feel more safe, it would make me feel more insecure.

pjgoober said at February 1, 2007 9:29 AM:

"Making them smarter wouldn't make me feel more safe, it would make me feel more insecure."

If you are in an all out state of war with people, you want them to be dumber. If you are letting them immigrate to your democratic, progressive society en masse, you want them to be smarter. As for Muslims, I would rather have idiot ones immigrating here than Einstein muslims. Genetically engineered super genius muslim terrorists running around seems kind of scary.

pjgoober said at February 2, 2007 9:02 AM:

Setting of super-genius terrorists aside, the current US mix of muslims must surely be better than the medieval peasants Europe has largely allowed in (even though zero muslim immigration would be even better).

Mensarefugee said at February 4, 2007 2:47 AM:

"Do you have on and off days in terms of your mental acumen? Imagine taking IQ tests on those on and off days."

Its worse for women. Because of their menstrual cycle, studies have shown that they can score as 14% less on average in academic tests, in their bad week. (Source - Brain Sex by Anne Moir and David Jessel)

Of course this brings up the discomforting question as to whether Psychometricians every controlled for that (and the even more discomforting question of whether they SHOULD control for that as its a regular thing O_o ).

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