It is hard to unseat a sitting member of Congress. Congressional representatives rarely lose in reelection attempts and even more rarely lose in primaries. But that might happen in Utah and if it does the public demand for tougher immigration policies will be the cause. If you are in the Utah district of House Representative Chris Cannon you can strike a blow for immigration control by voting for John Jacob and against Cannon in the primary on June 27, 2006.
The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Monday through Thursday, found Eagle Mountain businessman Jacob and five-term congressman Cannon in a dead heat with 44 percent of voters favoring Cannon to 41 percent for Jacob, leaving enough voters on the fence to throw the race either way.
Among those who insist they are "definite" about turning out Tuesday to vote, Jacob holds a slight edge: 45 percent to 44 percent. And among voters in Utah County, the conservative heart of the district that stretches from Salt Lake County to Beaver County, the lead is even more pronounced, with Jacob at 45 percent to Cannon's 40 percent.
A defeat of Cannon would be a huge victory against George W. Bush's immigration amnesty plans and stiffen the spines of the House opponents of the Senate's plan to drastically increase immigration.
In the last poll, two weeks ago, Cannon had a 48-28 lead, but 25% said they are undecided.
Jacob has closed almost all that gap in a short period of time.
"There's no question (the national attention on immigration) helps me, and for the nation it's a one-issue race," Jacob said. "But for Utahns, there are many issues."
He listed education, energy, the Second Amendment and fighting pornography as issues that interest 3rd District voters, based on poll results, but illegal immigration led the list — with 25 percent saying it is the most important issue. And Jacob acknowledged the possible national fallout should he upset Cannon in the June 27 primary.
"There's no question this is bigger than Chris Cannon and John Jacob," Jacob said. "This race could go a long way toward determining whether we have illegal immigration and amnesty or whether we'll send (illegal immigrants) back or invite them to go back and secure our borders."
Congress critters who see opposition to border control and opposition to immigration law enforcement as political liabilities are Congress critters who are a lot more likely to listen to demands from constituents.
Joe Guzzardi says the American Immigration Lawyers Association are the big force behind Senate bill S.2611 (which would add 66+ million immigrants in 20 years) and he points to an AILA email claiming that immigration restrictionists overwhelmingly outnumber open borders folks in calls to Congress.
Restrictionists are flooding Congressional phone lines and email inboxes with angry demands that their Senators and Representatives vote against any legislation that provides a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Their calls for an enforcement-only immigration policy are louder and more aggressive than ever and there are 400 of them for every 1 call from us.
The 400 to 1 intensity of the opposition to comprehensive immigration reform is expected to crescendo into the November elections, making it a likely voting issue at the polls. We cannot stop fighting now. We cannot let the restrictionists hijack this national debate by painting the Senate compromise as amnesty. We cannot be silent while they scream.
If that intensity of support for immigration restriction tosses an open borders Republican Congressman out of office in the Utah primary then S.2611 will be dead.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2006 June 25 12:10 PM Immigration Politics|