2006 June 17 Saturday
US Embassy Cable From Baghdad Details Decay

The Washington Post got hold of a cable sent by US ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to Washington describing how bad things are getting in Baghdad. It is a PDF image file which I've partially (now fully) transcribed below:

This cable, marked "sensitive" and obtained by The Washington Post, outlines in spare prose the daily-worsening conditions for those who live outside the heavily guarded international zone: harassment, threats and the employees' constant fears that their neighbors will discover they work for the U.S. government.

Oops. We aren't supposed to know what our government knows. Our rulers know what is best for us. Show proper deference and your faith and refrain from reading the forbidden knowledge.

Here is the first quarter of the document:

R 121430Z 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5042
INFO IRAQ COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 001992

E.O. 122956: N/A
TAGS: PHUM, PREL, ASEC, AMGT, IZ
SUBJECT: Snapshots from the Office: Public
Affairs Staff Show Strains of Social Discord

SENSITIVE

1. (SBU) Beginning in March, and picking up in mid-May, Iraqi staff in the Public Affairs section have complained that Islamist and/or militia groups have been negatively affecting their daily routine. Harassment over proper dress and habits has been increasingly pervasive. They also report that power cuts and fuel prices have diminished their quality of life. Conditions vary by neighborhood, but even upscale neighborhoods such as Mansur have visibly deteriorated.

Women's Rights
------------------------

2. (SBU) The Public Affairs Office has 9 local Iraqi employees. Two of our female employees report stepped up harassment beginning in mid-May. One, a Shiite who favors Western clothing, was advised by an unknown woman in her upscale Shiite/Christian Baghdad neighborhood to wear a veil and not to drive her own car. Indeed, she said, some groups are pushing women to cover even their faces, a step not taken in Iran even at its most conservative.

3. (SBU) Another, a Sunni, said that people in her middle-class neighborhood are harassing women and telling them to cover up and stop using cell phones (suspected channel to licentious relationships with men). She said that the taxi driver who brings her every day to the green zone checkpoint has told her he cannot let her ride unless she wears a headcover. A female in the PAS cultural section is now wearing a full abaya after receiving direct threats in May. She says her neighborhood, Adhamiya, is no longer permissive if she is not clad so modestly.

4. (SBU) These women say they cannot identify the groups that are pressuring them; many times, the cautions come from other women, sometimes from men who they say could be Sunni or Shiite, but appear conservative.They also tell us that some ministries, notably the Sadrist controlled Ministry of Transportation, have been forcing females to wear the hijab at work.

Dress Code for All?
----------------------------

5. (SBU) Staff members have reported that it is now dangerous for men to wear shorts in public; they no longer allow their children to play outside in shorts. People who wear jeans in public have come under attack from what staff members describe as Wahabis and Sadrists.

By noon Sunday I will transcribe the rest of this document image and do updates to this post with the rest of it.

Thanks to Greg Cochran for the heads-up.

Update: This first update takes us through the second third of the document.

Evictions
-------------

6. (SBU) One colleague beseeched us to weigh in to help a neighbor who was uprooted in May from her home of 30 years, on the pretense of application of some long-disused law that allows owners to evict tenants after 14 years. The woman, who is a Fayli Kurd, says she has nowhere to go, no other home, but the courts give them no recourse to this assertion of power. Such uprootings may be a response by new Shiite government authorities to similar actions against Arabs by Kurds in other parts of Iraq. (NOTE: An Arab newspaper editor told us he is preparing an extensive survey of ethnic cleansing, which he said is taking place in almost every Iraqi province, as political parties and their militias are seemingly engaged in tit-for-tat reprisals all over Iraq. One editor told us that the KDP is now planning to set up tent cities in Irbil, to house Kurds being evicted from Baghdad.)

Power Cuts and Fuel Shortages
a Drain on Society
----------------------------------------------

7. Temperatures in Baghdad have already reached 115 degrees. Employees all confirm that by the last week of May, they were getting one hour of power for every six hours without. That was only about four hours of power a day for the city. By early June, the situation had improved slightly. In Hai al Shaab, power has recently improved from one in six to one in three hours. Other staff report similar variances. Central Baghdad neighborhood Bab al Mu'atham has had no city power for over a month. Areas near hospitals, political party headquarters, and the green zone have the best supply, in some cases reaching 24 hours. One staff member reported that a friend lives in a building that houses a new minister; within 24 hours of his appointment, her building had city power 24 hours a day.

8. (SBU) All employees supplement city power with service contracted with neighborhood generator hookups that they pay for monthly. One employee pays 6500 ID per ampere to get 10 amperes per month (75,000 ID = USD 50/month). For this, her family gets 6 hours power per day, with service ending at 2 am. Another employee pays 9000 ID per ampere to get 10 amperes per month (90,000 = USD 60). For this, his family gets 8 hours per day, with service running until 5 am.

9. (SBU) Fuel lines have also taxed our staff. One employee told us May 29 that he had spent 12 hours on his day off (Saturday) waiting to get gas. Another staff member confirmed that shortages were so dire, prices on the black market in much of Baghdad were now above 1,000 Iraqi dinars per liter (the official, subsidized price is 250 ID).

Kidnappings, and Threats of Worse
-------------------------------------------------

10. (SBU) One employee informed us in March that his brother in law had been kidnapped. The man was eventually released, but this caused enormous emotional distress to the entire family. One employee, a Sunni Kurd, received an indirect threat to her life in April. She took extended leave, and by May, relocated abroad with her family.

Security Forces Mistrusted
----------------------------------------

11. (SBU) In April, employees began reporting a change in demeanor of guards at the green zone checkpoints. They seemed to be more militia-like, in some cases seemingly taunting. One employee asked us to explore getting her press credentials because guards had held her embassy badge up and proclaimed loudly to nearby passers-by "Embassy" as she entered. Such information is a death sentence if overheard by the wrong people.

Supervising a Staff At High Risk
----------------------------------------

12. (SBU) Employees all share a common tale of their lives: of nine employees in March, only four had family members who knew they worked at the embassy. That makes it difficult for them, and for us. Iraqi colleagues called after hours often speak Arabic as an indication they cannot speak openly in English.

13. (SBU) We cannot call employees in on weekends or holidays without blowing their "cover." Likewise, they have been unavailable during multiple security closures imposed by the government since February. A Sunni Arab female employee tells us that family pressures and the inability to share details of her employment is very tough; she told her family she was in Jordan when we sent her on training to the U.S. in February. Mounting criticisms of the U.S. at home among family members also makes her life difficult. She told us in mid-June that most of her family believes the U.S. -- which is widely perceived as fully controlling the country and tolerating the malaise -- is punishing populations as Saddam did (but with Sunnis and very poor Shiites now at the bottom of the list). Otherwise, she says, the allocation of power and security would not be so arbitrary.

14. (SBU) Some of our staff do not take home their American cell phones, as this makes them a target. Planning for their own possible abduction, they use code names for friends and colleagues and contacts entered into Iraq cell phones. For at least six months, we have not been able to use any local staff members for translation at on-camera press events.

15. (SBU) More recently, we have begun shredding documents printed out that show local staff surnames. In March, a few staff members approached us to ask what provisions would we make for them if we evacuate.

Sectarian Tensions Within Families
---------------------------------------------------

16. Ethnic and sectarian faultlines are also becoming part of the daily media fare in the country. One Shiite employee told us in late May that she can no longer watch TV news with her mother, who is a Sunni, because her mother blamed all government failings on the fact that Shiites are in charge. Many of the employee's immediate family members, including her father, one sister, and a brother, left Iraq years ago. This month, another sister is departing for Egypt, as she imagines the future here is too bleak.

The US invasion of Iraq is a total debacle. The happy talk blogs would have you believe that the good news is being ignored by liberal main stream media. Well, here's a diplomatic cable from the US embassy that confirms all the worst problems I've been posting about. Ethnic cleansing is happening throughout Iraq. People are fleeing the country. Militias rule and the central government has no presence in whole neighborhoods. People live in fear.

Update II: Here is the rest of the cable.

Many Baghdad neighborhoods have self-selected local governments centered around militias that control the people in each neighborhood. People do not trust their neighbors. They do not know the identity of many of the people who are enforcing codes of conduct and dress.

Frayed Nerves and Mistrust in the Office
-------------------------------------------------------------------

17. (SBU) Against this backdrop of frayed social networks, tension and moodiness have risen. One Shiite made disparaging comments about the Sunni caliph Othman which angered a Kurd. A Sunni Arab female apparently insulted a Shiite female colleague by criticizing her overly liberal dress. One colleague told us he feels "defeated" by circumstances, citing the example of being unable to help his two year old son who has asthma and cannot sleep in the stifling heat.

18. (SBU) Another employee tells us that life outside the Green Zone has become "emotionally draining." He lives in a mostly Shiite area and claims to attend a funeral "every evening." He, like other local employees, is financially responsible for his immediate and extended families. He revealed that "the burden of responsibility; new stress coming from social circles who increasingl disapprove of the coalition presence, and everyday threats weigh very heavily." This employee became extremely agitated in late May at website reports of an abduction of an Iraqi working with MNFI, whose expired Embassy and MNFI badges were posted on the website.

Staying Straight with Neighborhood
Governments and the 'Alasa'
---------------------------------------------------

19. (SBU) Staff members say they daily assess how to move safely in public. Often, if they must travel outside their own neighborhoods, they adopt the clothing, language, and traits of the area. In Jadriya, for example, one needs to conform to the SCIRI/Badr ethic; in Yusufiya, a strict Sunni conservative dress code has taken hold. Adhamiya and Salihiya, controlled by the secular Ministry of Defense, are not conservative. Moving inconspicuously in Sadr City requires Shiite conservative dress and a particular lingo. Once-upscale Mansur district, near the Green Zone, according to one employee, by early June was an "unrecognizable ghost town."

20. (SBU) Since Samarra, Baghdadis have honed these survival skills. Vocabulary has shifted to reflect new behavior. Our staff -- and our contacts -- have become adept in modifying behavior to avoid "Alasas," informants who keep an eye out for "outsiders" in neighborhoods. The Alasa mentality is becoming entrenched as Iraqi security forces fail to gain public confidence.

21. (SBU) Our staff report that security and services are being rerouted through "local providers" whose affiliations are vague. As noted above, those who are admonishing citizens on their dress are not known to the residents. Neighborhood power providers are not well known either, nor is it clear how they avoid robbery or targeting. Personal safety depends on good relations with the "neighborhood" governments, who barricade streets and ward off outsiders. The central government, our staff says, is not relevant; even local mukhtars have been displaced or coopted by militias. People no longer trust most neighbors.

22. (SBU) A resident of upscale Shiite/Christian Karrada district told us that "outsiders" have moved in and now control the local mukhtars, one of whom now has cows and goats grazing in the streets. When she expressed her concern at the dereliction, he told her to butt out.

Comment
--------------

23. (SBU) Although our staff retain a professional demeanor, strains are apparent. We see that their personal fears are reinforcing divisive sectarian or ethnic channels, despite talk of reconciliation by officials. Employees are apprehensive enough that we fear they may exaggerate developments or steer us towards news that comports with their own worldview. Objectivity, civility, and logic that make for a functional workplace may falter if social pressures outside the Green Zone don't abate.

KHALILZAD

NNNN

Will the ethnic cleansing eventually lead to a decrease in the extent of the inter-ethnic killings as the groups become more separated from each other? Will another mosque bombing like Samarra lead to much higher scale warfare? How is this going to play out?

Short of upping and leaving does the United States have any real cards to play in Iraq aside from just keeping on fighting with an inadequately sized force? My guess is that since we obviously aren't going to rule with the brutality of an Arab dictator we can't rule the place. At the same time our very presence motivates a substantial portion of the insurgency to fight.

Update III: Read the New York Times editorial "A Long Road Ahead in Iraq".

Take the police. It is meaningless to talk about Iraq's taking charge of its own security when the police forces that patrol its cities and run its prisons are rife with sectarian militias and death squads that would sooner wage a civil war than prevent one. While Mr. Bush holds out visions of Iraqi security forces standing up so that Americans can stand down, Iraq's deputy justice minister more candidly told The Washington Post last week that "we cannot control the prisons; it's as simple as that." He added that "our jails are infiltrated by the militias from top to bottom, from Basra to Baghdad."

I do not find it worth my time to read or listen to speeches about Iraq by major figures in the Bush Administration. They are in their own reality distortion zone. Meanwhile reality plays out tragically in Iraq.

The Times editors point to indicators that show things getting worse, not better.

Consider also the level of sectarian violence, a clear indicator of whether Iraq is moving toward national unity or sectarian conflict. In May 2003, there were five recorded incidents of sectarian violence. In May 2004, there were 10. In May 2005, there were 20. Last month there were 250. This is a very discouraging trend, as is the predictable response: thousands of families fleeing their homes.

The Times says that for the last couple of years electric power production has stayed flat and, as outlined in the diplomatic cable above, most of the time people do not have electric power. On Iraq the Times rejects solipsism.

Pretending things are better than they are will not make them so.

The Times says we face a number of questions on Iraq including whether to take on the death squads or try to cut down on the ethnic cleansing.

Should the United States resign itself to slow-motion "ethnic cleansing" in some mixed areas or try to stop it by pouring more American troops into zones around Baghdad and Basra where the threat seems most acute?

First off, unless the Times wants to start editorializing for a draft I do not see where the troops would come from to fight death squads or prevent ethnic cleansing. We need 4 times more troops to properly occupy Iraq. That isn't going to happen.

We are trying to swim upstream against the current in Iraq. I'd prefer we just pull out and let them sort it out. But Bush insists we stay and even many liberals shrink from the idea of pulling out and letting the Iraqis duke it out on their own. Well, there's a solution to the sectarian violence under these circumstances: Accelerate the ethnic cleansing by helping minorities in each neighborhood and region to move places where they are majorities. Protect their movement. Provide some money to help them move. Build tent cities. Bring in prefabricated homes.

At each step of the way the Bush Administration and the war supporters have refused to admit how much less can be accomplished in Iraq. At each step the amount we can accomplish goes down even further. The best case outcome gets even worse. Unless we admit how lousy the best case has become we will not take the steps necessary to accomplish even those very low objectives. We need to admit we can't stop the ethnic cleansing and find ways to make it happen with far fewer killed and less animosity between the major groups in Iraq.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2006 June 17 11:19 PM  Mideast Iraq Decay


Comments
gcochran said at June 18, 2006 12:17 PM:

As Machiavelli pointed out, one of the tried-and-true ways of securing a conquest is for the prince in question to reside there. I think that Bush should _move_ to the Green Zone and stay there until Jeffersonian democracy breaks out. Naturally, he'll need a big staff - a staff of true believers, believers who were sound enough to not only cheer on this wonderful war, but that have managed to retain their initial enthusiasm.

Now if the Prez needs some help locating those staffers, why, I have a little list.

John S Bolton said at June 18, 2006 3:07 PM:

What if an essential part of what we have going on is not just purblind internationalist Commentary writers, making predictable errors, but an actual hungering after competition for sovereignty, as a value in itself, or nearly so? The faux ideal of competition for sovereignty, than which there is nothing more anarcholibertarian, would try to create conditions such as those prevailing in much of Iraq today.
The facts as they stand represent what someone wants or prefers; of those subject to deliberate action.
Competition for sovereignty is war itself, and power is greatest when internal war rages.
Is Iraq a model for a brave new diversity-valuing America?

John S Bolton said at June 18, 2006 3:26 PM:

When a powerful country wants war, one of the best ways to bring it on is to appease and appear weak before the target adversary.
Historically, imperial powers have had greatest ease in controlling the cities; while the outlying districts were the zones of insurgency.
It does not seem to be much noticed, that the reverse is the case in Iraq.
Is the administration trying to make it look as if we cannot suppress urban guerilla warfare?
What are the implications of this in terms of domestic possibilities of conflict development?
It might be suspected that there are those in our government who would like to make it look as if a minority uprising in America could have success similar to those waging war of religion in Iraq.

(Vicente) Fox Hound said at June 18, 2006 3:49 PM:

Four hours of power a day, and just look at the 10-Day Forecast for Baghdad:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/IZXX0008?from=month_topnav_business

gcochran said at June 18, 2006 4:35 PM:

"The facts as they stand represent what someone wants or prefers. " What an interesting principle. I guess that Hitler invaded Russia with the express intent of having the Red Army sack Berlin, while the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in pursuit of nuclear doom. Who'da thunk it?

(Vicente) Fox Hound said at June 18, 2006 6:13 PM:

"I do not find it worth my time to read or listen to speeches about Iraq by major figures Bush Administration. They are in their own reality distortion zone. Meanwhile reality plays out tragically in Iraq."

Same here. Listening to the pro-Bush crowd makes me very sick to my stomach. I cannot watch Fox News without hearing repititious bile being spewed about the War, especially from John Gibson, Sean Hannity, and Brit Hume. The other day Gibson was blathering about a memo recovered from the airstrike on Zarqawi that said the US pressure on Al Qaeda in Iraq was working--therefore we are beating the insurgency in Iraq.

To John Gibson, Sean Hannity, and to virtually every Neocon and/or Bush cheerleader in existence, Al Qaeda IS the Iraqi insurgency, and the Iraqi insurgency IS Al Qaeda in Iraq. This is absolutely false. I'm not convinced that Gibson, Hannity, or any other cheerleader could even name one single active Sunni insurgent group, let alone their ideology, tactics, makeup, etc.

Mark said at June 18, 2006 7:05 PM:

On this one, you are preaching to the choir. Nation building is a stupid idea. If these stupid people are hell bent on killing each other, there isn't that much we can realistically do about it. It's not worth a single young Americans life to stop these fool people form killing each other if they are all hell bent on doing so. We never should have embarked on this stupid fool nation building in Iraq project to begin with.

Now, how do we get out?

It Has Happened Here said at June 18, 2006 7:14 PM:

I find it alarming how the pro-Bush, pro-Iraq War crowd has managed to define itself as the "true conservatives" in the media. I've almost never been able to tolerate the Democrats before, but with the repulsive neocons in effective control of the GOP and the major Republican blogs like Freep and LGF, I find myself actually-- agreeing with the Dems on Iraq, and it makes me sick to my stomach. The only way I'd vote for a Republican in 2008 like McCain or Allen, would be if the Repub were the only thing standing in the way of Hillary Clinton pushing her Socialist paradise in the Oval Office. And I can tell you that I'd need about 20 clothespins to hold my nose if voting for McCain, but I'd do it. The Dems nominate anybody else, even Al Gore, and I either vote for the Democrat or stay home and wax my car.

It Has Happened Here said at June 18, 2006 7:23 PM:

BTW this is slightly off-topic, but it looks like pigs are flyin' and hell's frozen over:

http://www.commonvoice.com/article.asp?colid=5175

France-- yep, France, that country we generally know as being full of irritating snobs in Western Europe, that country that for the longest time could see nothing wrong with having millions of angry Arabs in its borders-- has just passed the toughest immigration law in Europe, next to Denmark and Germany. Not only does it basically bar Arabs and North Africans from coming to France, it also blocks family reunification, demands that people within the country get jobs (no more easy welfare for the Muslim immigrants) and even makes deportation relatively easy for even minor crimes. France will instead be focusing on skilled immigrants from Eastern Europe and the Euro South American countries.

This is why I really can't stand those idiots (American Renaissance has a good number of them) who know nothing and yet claim that "North America and Europe are the same, both are suffering from a Third-World immigration crisis." No, they're not the same. They both have the problem but they've responded in radically different ways. The US and Canada, as well as Australia to a lesser extent, have decided that the low birth rate of their White citizens is a problem best remedied by... replacing them wholesale, with low-skilled Third World immigrants so that White populations become a minority in each case.

In contrast, Europe has decided that the best solution is to ride out the crisis, encourage immigration of skilled white immigrants from east of the Danube and from the Americas, provide incentives for increasing fertility among their native populations, and generally remain as Western countries. BTW Turkey has virtually no chance of gaining EU entry, the referenda among EU nations are ensuring this. France is remarkable in the stringency of its immigration law, but it's hardly alone-- Germany and Austria also have tough laws, Belgium and the Netherlands have been tightening up, even the Mediterranean countries are introducing tough restrictions. I've heard about white Americans studying German and French and emigrating to Europe and I used to think this was crazy, but now I'm not so sure anymore, the way developments have proceeded. Maybe they're the ones making the smartest long-term bet, while we who stay in the US are condemned to watch impotently and angrily as we become a minority surrounded by a resentful Third-World majority in North America. The ruling cliques in the US seem content to push the country's founding white population into minority status, while Europe's elites have listened to their people on this fundamental issue. I'm now starting to wonder myself if I want to continue paying taxes to support a regime in North America that will no longer be Western in 30 years or so-- maybe it's better to learn some German and move to Salzburg or something, where not only I but my kids and grandkids will be dwelling and working for a Western nation. Sad to say, but every time I drop by a public school almost anywhere in the US, and especially in a place like Illinois or Florida, it becomes increasingly obvious from demographics alone that the US will soon be no longer a white, Western nation.

Mark said at June 18, 2006 8:03 PM:

To It Has Happened Here, I don't think McCain will get past the Republican primaries. I don't think Hillary will get past the primaries for the dems. It seems like front runner dems always lose the primary, sort of like Dean did. Al Gore at least claims he is not running. No idea about Allen.

Most dem politicians in Washington actually more or less support Bush on the Iraq mess, except for Murtha, who is not running for president. Kerry came out, I think lately, and said Iraq was a mess, but dems are very unforgiving towards losers. I don't think Kerry can get past the dem primary. Feingold can't win the general, and the dems really want to win the general, so I am not sure he can win the primary.

The dem candidate will probably come from nowhere, like, maybe, Obama, sort of like what happened with the Clinton nomination. No one expected Clinton to win going into the primaries. The Republican candidate is more complicated. Republicans tend to be more organized. They are in a mess this time though. Cheney can't win the nomination. Rice, umm, no. I am not sure anyone can win the Republican nomination if they promise more of the Bush approach. I have no idea who the Republicans will nominate. It better not be Frist, he can't win the general. So, maybe Allen is the one to bet on.

Bob Badour said at June 20, 2006 7:21 AM:

Yesterday, I saw an interview with an Esprit de Corps reporter who was captured, tortured and released. His experience suggests that at least some of the time the insurgents run the checkpoints, that factions many of us assume want only to kill each other actually cooperate very effectively and willingly at a high level, that the insurgents are very highly organized and effective while the US has basically retreated behind the green zone.

I think the communication you transcribed supports what the reporter said and at the same time suggests even the writer of the communication is unaware of the real depth of the problem.

Bush and Rummy et al successfully reinvented Viet Nam.

Friedrich Braun said at June 20, 2006 3:06 PM:

I don't share the writer's enthusiasm for France and Germany -- it seems like they waited thirty years to tighten their immigration laws...they're late by a few decades. Both have millions of non-White foreigners in their midst...in the case of France the situation is particularly tragic since it has over ten (yes over ten!) million Muslims...mainly from sub-Saharan Africa and Arabia. Additionally, one marked advantage of the U.S., Canada, and Australia is space, lots of space...people can still pack up and leave when undesirable, low IQ, violent minorities (read: Negroes and Mestizos...and increasingly Arabs) invade their neighbourhood. This option is simply unavailable in Europe. In the case of Germany the situation is downright unbearable, Germany (a nation of 84 million people) has never been this small in its entire history. Moreover, Western Europeans have enacted all sorts of bizarre (from an American perspective) "anti-Hate" laws designed to muzzle themselves (I'll also mention in passing that if you doubt in Europe some aspects of the holocau$t story as established during the Nuremberg kangaroo "trials", you're liable to spend years in jail) and founded a cornucopia of “anti-racist” organizations and institutions that have as their explicit purpose to work against their own racial/genetic interests. Learing French or Germa and moving to Europe is not a serious solution, we must stay where we are and fight for our surival.


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