2004 November 10 Wednesday
Steve Sailer On Glaring Errors In Hispanic Exit Poll Data

The published results of exit polls on the Hispanic share of the vote are internally inconsistent.

Here's the background: the NEP exit poll, as reported on CNN and other leading outlets, breaks out Presidential election numbers at three levels: nationally, regionally (East, Midwest, South, and West), and by states.

In each of the regions, not just the South, the sums of the individual states' number of Hispanic votes for Bush add up to less than the exit poll's total regional number of Hispanic votes.

The NEP reports the Hispanic share of the total vote in all states, but it only reports exactly whom Hispanics voted for in those states where there's a statistically significant sample size of Hispanics.

In the South, for example, only four of the fourteen states have enough Latinos for the NEP to break out Bush's and Kerry's shares: Florida, Texas, Georgia, and, last and least, Oklahoma.

By combining the exit poll data with turnout data from the United States Election Project, we can see that the Bush's Hispanic vote totals appear to be systematically inflated.

Steve goes through some calculations (click through to see the details) and then comes up with the bottom line that shows how obviously the Latino vote counts were fabricated:

So, if Hispanics made up 9% of the 38.382 million voters in all 14 states of the South, then there must be 0.474 million Latino voters in the other ten states. And if Bush really carried 64% of Hispanics overall in the South, then he must have won 0.480 million Hispanic votes in those other ten states.

That means he won 101% of these states’ Hispanic vote.

The Midwestern numbers bring to mind the old Chicago political machine saying "vote early, vote often". It would have taken multiple voting per Hispanic Bush supporter in the Midwest to get this result:

Similarly, the exit poll claims that in the West region, Bush took 39% of the Hispanic vote. But in the eight broken-out states, which account for something like 97% of all Hispanic voters in the West, Bush only garnered 34%. So for the unspecified states (Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, and Utah) to raise Bush's regional share from 34% to 39%, their Hispanics would have had to cast about 167% of their votes for Bush. In the Midwest, the exit poll purports that Bush won 0.489 million votes from 1.527 million Hispanics (32%). But in the four broken-out states, he won only 0.216 million out of 0.735 million (29%). So Bush would have had to capture 0.273 million in the unspecified states. The exit poll reports that there were just 0.222 million Hispanic voters in those other states. So Bush must have won a 123% share of them.

So obviously the reported high Bush Hispanic exit poll vote reports are very wrong. Bush and Rove have not made a great breakthough with the growing Hispanic population. The Republican Party is still headed for demographic oblivion and of course the nation as a whole is still headed for demographic disaster.

Long time ParaPundit visitor John S. Bolton provided Steve with the crucial clue that got Steve thinking in the right direction. See this post Steve Sailer: Exit Poll Estimates For Hispanic Vote Not Credible and read John's observations in the comment section.

So how to explain these results? Are staffers of the major news organizations whoe produced these bogus numbers morally corrupt or mathematically illiterate? I tend to favor incompetency as the explanation but it was probably incompetency of a sort that does not reflect well on the character of those who made the mistakes.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2004 November 10 11:58 PM  Politics American Domestic

John S Bolton said at November 11, 2004 1:14 AM:

This Sailer report is a big story; a major expos`e of skullduggery in the instant revisionism of our political history. He shows a consistent pattern, which can't be random fluctuation, and that gets repeated across a dozen states in one region, then another dozen or so in the next region, and so on, adding up to the guilty fingerprints of falsification. This exit poll is now discredited beyond repair; but the media that set up this syndicate, is none too likely to report its own malfeasances. This exit-poll was supposed to be useful for making exactly these sort of comparisons; as of Latino Kerry voters in the midwest vs. another region, but now it can't be used. What is showing up, as in what is referred to in the saying 'murder will out', is the paper trail of a readjustment to compensate for an oversampling of minorities. The trail of a perhaps 2-to-1 oversampling of Latinos is showing through; this could not have happened and got messily covered up by accident. The 64% Bush Latino vote in the southern states is given on CNN as being up 29 points from 2000, but Sailer quotes a different number for that comparison. Possibly the exit poll will just change their numbers again, now that they've been found out.

John S Bolton said at November 11, 2004 10:32 PM:

When honest errors or mis-samplings are made, the discrepancies which result, do not steepen and mount up according to the degree to which the factual details of it are hidden. When Sailer turned over these exit-poll rocks, there lay exposed a data snakepit, crawling with slimy things, such as the Hispanic%-hidden states' Latino Bush support going impossibly over 100% in 3 out of 4 regions. The exit-poll fixers are guilty of an attempted rape of Clio; only deliberate concealment of anomalies can cause a pattern like that revealed above. This bold falsification can't really have been motivated by a wish to bamboozle the right into believing that Latinos are neutral relative to the political balance. That is not a high-value project for the media, such as would be worth sacrificing the exit-poll and its people for. It has to have been the result of a scramble to reduce an oversampling of the Latino voters, and the simultaneous credibility emergency of having several points too many Kerry respondents. They disposed of at least two points of their respondents from the Hispanic Kerry-supporters, then tried to conceal the resulting anomalies, most outrageously in the states which don't report separate Latino percentages.

John S Bolton said at November 12, 2004 1:28 AM:

The more hidden the details of this exit-poll, the greater the discrepancies from what can actually occur, become. Start with the results from the Southern states, where 64% of latinos supposedly voted for Bush. Remove TX and FL, reported at 58% latinos for Bush, and the remainder of the region would need to have ~90% Bush-favoring Hispanic respondents: 58 x 4 =232, +90 =322/5 =64.4 (this assumes 80% of the latino voters in the region are in TX&FL). Remove GA, and almost 100% of the remaining Hispanic voters in the region would have to be in Bush's column. Remove also OK, and the impossible, over 100%, Bush Latino support calculated by Steve Sailer is required. The other regions, on the Sailer calculations, would show the same pattern. This is a prima facie case of deliberate tampering, though. Discrepancies deviating far from what is possible, would not otherwise increase hugely and in step with the increase in the degree of man-made hiddenness of the underlying data.

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