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2004 September 20 Monday
Steve Sailer Says Keep Turkey Out Of European Union

Steve Sailer lays out a number of reasons Americans, Turks, and Europeans should want to keep Turkey out of the EU.

It's simply not in America's economic interest to encourage Turkey to submerge into a trading bloc designed to maximize trade within the EU while penalizing imports from America.

Nor is it in America's strategic interest to make more feasible Brussels' dream of a European military force separate from NATO. So far, such plans have largely foundered on the anti-martial feelings of Europeans unwilling to sacrifice their precious 1.3 children. But Turkey would make a separate EU strike force much more feasible by providing cheap, brave cannon fodder.

Objective hardball points about American interests are too often ignored while attention is given to unrealistic and idealistic imaginings about how some policy proposal will promote freedom or democracy. Enough such unrealistic imaginings have blown up in our faces that we ought to be more willing to make more hard-headed realpolitik calculations of our interests. The recognition that a single united EU covering all NATO countries is going to obsolesce NATO is certainly a realpolitik acknowledgement of the obvious.

By analogy imagine the United States forming a political merger with Mexico and allowing Mexicans to legally travel across the border in unlimited numbers. The EU has a lower per capita income than the United States but Turkey has a lower living standard than Mexico. Measured in purchasing power parity Mexico's per capita GDP is $9000 whereas Turkey is even lower at $6,700. The EU will have to spend large amounts of money on Turkey and also on increased levels of social spending on all the Turks who would flood into Europe.

If Turkey is really capable of rising to Western European levels of productivity and living standards (and I do not believe it can - see Steve's article for some arguments why) then it should be able to accomplish that economic rise without joining the EU. After all, even some small countries that are not part of large trading blocs have managed to achieve absolutely amazing standards of living without the help of highly valuable natural resources. Located right in the heart of Europe and without EU membership Switzerland has managed to achieve a very impressive $32,000 per capita GDP.

Some people argue that if the EU "turns its back on Turkey" then the Turks will turn toward Islamism. Well, if the Turks are that easily offended into going down that path the Europeans should be very reluctant to take the risk that the Turks may go down that path even as part of the EU. There is no reason that the EU's mandarins should feel rushed to decide the Turkey question. Let the Turks show that they can raise their living standards, that they are not going to join the rest of the Muslim world in the increasing trend toward embrace of fundamentalist Islam, and that they really have settled their internal problem with the Kurds.

Update: What I find ironic about the EU mandarin push for Turkey's membership in the EU is that those same mandarins tend to look down on Christian fundamentalism in the United States. The EU elites generally despise and distrust Americans with strongly held religious beliefs and do not like to see religiously devout people in high positions in the US government. Yet what is the EU embracing by entertaining political union with Turkey? A country that will become politically more Islamically fundamentalist once the soldiers are told they have to permanently butt out of politics. In fact, this is already happening. The effect of Turkey's entry into the EU will be to undermine the Turkish military's role as guardian of the secular nature of Turkey's government. American Christian fundamentalism poses very little threat to the EU and yet it is that fundamentalism that attracts critical elite European commentary even as the elites in Europe are probably too foolish to avoid letting a far more dangerous fundamentalism become a much larger presence in Europe. What folly.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2004 September 20 01:42 AM  Europe and America


Comments
John S Bolton said at September 20, 2004 2:38 AM:

The administration is continuing its line that only prejudice stands in the way of the uplift of the moslems. They want to prove that they do not hate moslems; so they tell the EU to accept them. They don't know enough not to try to prove that they're not what ad hominem smear-people say they are. Thus, the smears will intensify against them. They're like liberals who would cry that they're not racists, while their children are shot one by one, in front of them. It is weakness, of the sort that elicits the most intense rage and aggressive feelings from those who are being appeased. They are caught trying to bargain with moslems for their lives. The attacks will now intensify; the terrorists see nothing but someone who wants to prove he is not prejudiced against them. He is saying, in effect, I don't discriminate, please let me live, I am not prejudiced against the moslem, please do not attack. You are good enough to live with white people, please don't hit me; everyone is equal, please stop hitting me. T.hese are the words of weakness which embolden enemies to attack even more massively.

Jody said at September 21, 2004 10:23 PM:

"By analogy imagine the United States forming a political merger with Mexico and allowing Mexicans to legally travel across the border in unlimited numbers."

If you strike the word legally, I have no problem imagining the situation at all.

Angry German said at September 23, 2004 4:31 AM:

A recent Gallup Poll in Austria shows that 76% of the austrian people do not want Turkey in the EU (in fact, 82% of all SPOE-Voters - the austrian sozial democrats - do not want turkey)- and it's the same here in Germany. But appearently, we do not count any more.

Invisible Scientist said at September 23, 2004 12:56 PM:

OK, the Europeans, INCLUDING FRANCE, are all against allowing Turkey into the EU.
But at the same time, they are encoraging the immigration of Arabs, especially into
France and UK. This is a mysterious situation, because I do not see why one group
of Muslims, (namely Arabs) are favored more than the Turks, especially given that
currently Turks are more peaceful and pro-western than most of the Arab countries.

Tom said at September 23, 2004 2:08 PM:

Invisible Scientist, European women are allergic to fetuses and can't have children.

Invisible Scientist said at September 23, 2004 3:56 PM:

I don't understand why the fact that European women cannot have children, has anything to do
with the fact that one group of immigrant Muslim workers is favored over another group, especially
given that the allowed group is currently a lot more unfriendly than the group that is a lot more friendly.

John S Bolton said at September 29, 2004 12:45 AM:

If this happens, and with the allowance of immigration, it is likely to involve massive aggression on the net taxpayers of the welfare societies targeted. Certainly the Turks are not that far down, but this is still a request for mass altruism on the part of the Europeans, which itself indicates hostility and lack of solidarity with our long-time allies. Turkey was not there when we went to war in Iraq, not even to the extent of allowing their territory to be used, even though they border it. Instead of taking the side of our loyal allies, and their long-term interest, against the aggrandizement of the Turks, who double-crossed us recently, and may be expected to continue to do so, our officials are pretending that only racism opposes the overrunning of rich welfare states with millions of moslem immigrants. This shows that there is no penalty for disloyal allies, who will be rewarded, and plenty of play for going against the more loyal allies, whose loyalty we obviously do not value, or care to maintain.

RIch Rostrom said at September 29, 2004 2:30 PM:

Turkey was going to cooperate with the Iraq War when the French and Germans strongarmed them. France told them if they allowed the US to transit 4th ID to northern Iraq, France would block Turkey from the EU forever. Even then, the Islamic-democrat government party kept nearly all their members in line; it was the secularist opposition parties who cast most of the No votes.

Rom said at October 2, 2004 5:59 PM:

I stumbled upon this board and after reading some of these comments i'm pretty disappointed that some of you are Americans. Giving any credibility to steve sailer is probably the most absurd acceptance of ignorance. He at one point states that the IQ's of the Turks as well as Hispanics is well below that of Europe and Americans. IQ tests are obselete as any educated person knows and they were also discriminatory factors against white immigrants in our country. Europeans ARE afraid of the Turks joining and it can certainly be argued that their leader is jumping the gun. However, isolation is never a good idea, and nationalism is more dangerous than good. By acknowledging a higher accountability it is actually possible that the Turks will be the best ally against religious extremists. An Islamic voice is a boon to the European Union not a detrament. The progression of Turkey as a secular state is the reason they should eventually, although not at this instant, be admitted. Europeans can be xenophobic (as some of you sound), but that doesn't mean that eventually adding a country with many more consumers isn't a good idea. Once Turkey is allowed to join the European Union they will be revitalized by the European union aid, as were Spain and Portugal whom I can personally say are countries with the highest of living conditions. The argument posed by many against Turkey joining isn't for economic interests, rather because there is fear of the challenge to Christian hegemony. It would be best if some (John S Bolton in particular) stopped hidden behind the facade of self interest and just admit that you have an inherent dislike for Muslims.

Good Day

Jasi said at December 13, 2004 9:44 AM:

I'm not afraid to admit that I have an inherent dislike for Muslims, but that is not the reason I'm against Turkey joining the EU. The amount of EU subsidies that would go to Turkey, especially into the agricultural sector, would drain Europe (rom's reference to Spain is also relevant here as the billions spent on Spain were largely wasted). Next up having more immigrants flooding over the borders would actually increase racial tension. In Holland for example people are sick of the Turks they already have, I speak from experience when I say that the Turkish immigrant groups are the most aggressive. Also, as a member of Amnesty I would not like to see the EU essentially condoning the high level of human rights violations in Turkey by allowing them to join. There doesn't have to be a policy of isolationism, Turkey can just be encouraged to modernise through other means than membership to the EU. Appeasement didn't manage to prevent the Second World War and it won't stop Muslim fundamentalism.
If Turkey is allowed into the EU then I'm moving to Switzerland.

Burak AR said at June 3, 2005 10:59 AM:

I think there will be a lot of arguments all over Europe with the process of joining of Turkey into the Union.
As a secular Turk who knows both worlds well ,I would like to say few words.
Muslim fundementalism stems mainly from the resentment to the central government and the republican elite who are enjoying good standart of living .İn an economy where the distribution of economic wealth is not done by market forces but with state hand those who are at the bottom observe the the top and notices that they are all at the same time secular.
The castle to be conquered is made of secular values and republican values.İn order to have a better life they fight this system..
When we say Turkey may loose secular values we say we have to make lives of too many people better.
The other solution is not human is full of conflict.
Turkey's elite understands that the country can not make this dramatic turn not only without help but without a vision.
The change will be very painful.People will not accept unless they are sure that they do it for a cause.
I found it very shallow when religious differences are brought into this discussion.
Those Turks who went to Europe for work were unfortunatly the poor of the country,they were mostly uneducated.
On the other hand Europe was not not multi cultural .
People excluded those coming out of their world.The blame for non integration is on both sides and even more on the host nation.
To comclude I would like to say that ,articulation of Turkey to the free market,liberal world is a guarantee for peace for all of us.
If some say ''Turkey of high standarts is a threat to our economies'' should think twice of what Turkey full of young poor can be.

Burak AR said at June 3, 2005 11:01 AM:

I think there will be a lot of arguments all over Europe with the process of joining of Turkey into the Union.
As a secular Turk who knows both worlds well ,I would like to say few words.
Muslim fundementalism stems mainly from the resentment to the central government and the republican elite who are enjoying good standart of living .İn an economy where the distribution of economic wealth is not done by market forces but with state hand those who are at the bottom observe the the top and notices that they are all at the same time secular.
The castle to be conquered is made of secular values and republican values.İn order to have a better life they fight this system..
When we say Turkey may loose secular values we say we have to make lives of too many people better.
The other solution is not human is full of conflict.
Turkey's elite understands that the country can not make this dramatic turn not only without help but without a vision.
The change will be very painful.People will not accept unless they are sure that they do it for a cause.
I found it very shallow when religious differences are brought into this discussion.
Those Turks who went to Europe for work were unfortunatly the poor of the country,they were mostly uneducated.
On the other hand Europe was not not multi cultural .
People excluded those coming out of their world.The blame for non integration is on both sides and even more on the host nation.
To comclude I would like to say that ,articulation of Turkey to the free market,liberal world is a guarantee for peace for all of us.
If some say ''Turkey of high standarts is a threat to our economies'' should think twice of what Turkey full of young poor can be.

Burak AR said at June 3, 2005 11:03 AM:

I think there will be a lot of arguments all over Europe with the process of joining of Turkey into the Union.
As a secular Turk who knows both worlds well ,I would like to say few words.
Muslim fundementalism stems mainly from the resentment to the central government and the republican elite who are enjoying good standart of living .İn an economy where the distribution of economic wealth is not done by market forces but with state hand those who are at the bottom observe the the top and notices that they are all at the same time secular.
The castle to be conquered is made of secular values and republican values.İn order to have a better life they fight this system..
When we say Turkey may loose secular values we say we have to make lives of too many people better.
The other solution is not human is full of conflict.
Turkey's elite understands that the country can not make this dramatic turn not only without help but without a vision.
The change will be very painful.People will not accept unless they are sure that they do it for a cause.
I found it very shallow when religious differences are brought into this discussion.
Those Turks who went to Europe for work were unfortunatly the poor of the country,they were mostly uneducated.
On the other hand Europe was not not multi cultural .
People excluded those coming out of their world.The blame for non integration is on both sides and even more on the host nation.
To comclude I would like to say that ,articulation of Turkey to the free market,liberal world is a guarantee for peace for all of us.
If some say ''Turkey of high standarts is a threat to our economies'' should think twice of what Turkey full of young poor can be.


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