China's top leaders see no reason to intervene with North Korea. China has stepped up efforts to cut off the flow of refugees from North Korea into China. China sees international terrorism as not its problem. The only hopeful sign from China so far is that some of its foreign policy thinkers are arguing that a nuclear North Korea would lead to a general nuclearisation that would shift the strategic balance away from China.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at People's University, argued in an essay published last week that China must reassess its strategic priorities. The problem, he said, is that even if the Americans negotiate in earnest, North Korea may have no incentive to abandon its development of nuclear weapons. It could develop an arsenal of warheads, possibly forcing Japan and South Korea to go nuclear, too. That would upend the strategic balance in Asia, which currently favors China.
Will this selfish reason for intervention gain much support in China's elite? If it doesn't then the US is either going to have to find some way to bring down the North Korean regime.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2003 February 04 11:49 PM Politics Grand Strategy|