2002 December 12 Thursday
Steve Sailer On Demographic Future Of America

In an article chock full of interesting insights about demographic trends and patterns in America and the larger world it was hard to choose one to excerpt. However, there was a surprising demographic consequence of the 1986 illegal alien amnesty.

One little-known aspect of the large-scale 1986 amnesty, which might be relevant to the current controversy, is that it seems to have set off a significant baby boom among the Hispanic immigrants who were its prime beneficiaries.

According to data assembled by demographer Hans P. Johnson of the Public Policy Institute of California, in the mid-80s in California, foreign-born Hispanics women were having babies at a pace that would average out to a lifetime total of 3.25 babies per woman. As the amnesty took effect, this total fertility rate shot up to 4.44 babies per immigrant Hispanic woman by 1991. It then declined back to 3.25 babies apiece by 1998, the last year for which Johnson had data. This baby boom is now squeezing through California's intensely crowded school system.

Apparently, by allowing previously illegal immigrants to confidently put down roots in America, it encouraged them to have large families here.

The highest level US Census projection for the US population in 2100 is the absolutely mind-boggling number of 1.182 billion. Keep in mind that there are much lower level projections as well, But the US population is growing faster than the Census Bureau expected it to be when those projections were made. So a figure that high is not implausible.

The biggest factor that will determine how high the US population will rise is immigration. If Americans do not want to see the population of their country double or triple they are going to have to demand of their politicians that immigration be stopped.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2002 December 12 12:03 AM  Immigration Demographics


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