Steve Sailer argues that the neo-conservatives are misrepresenting the reasons for the Republican Party's electoral victory in 2002.
When Bush lost the popular vote in 2000, less than 10 percent of his votes came from minorities. So, it's easy to see why many commentators assumed that the GOP would have to win more votes from minorities to win in the future.
In 2002, however, in all likelihood the GOP drew an even smaller share of its support from minorities. Yet, the Republicans triumphed at the polls, winning about 53 percent of the two-party vote.
No single poll result should be trusted, especially this year when the collapse of the VNS national exit poll made analysts' jobs even harder.
Still, a wide variety of results from both state and small-scale national polls suggest that the non-Hispanic white share of the total vote was up in 2002 over 2000 and thus the minority share was down. Further, Republican candidates may have won a larger share of the white vote than in 2000.
More on the voting patterns by ethnic groups here.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2002 December 02 03:56 PM Immigration Border Control|