Arnaud de Borchgrave examines the sorry state of Pakistan and Afghanistan where the Islamists are making gains.
If the U.S. goes to war against Iraq, Pakistan may well go the way of Yugoslavia. It could easily blow into four deadly parts and where the country's nuclear arsenal would wind up is anyone's guess. Mr. Musharraf is not an Islamist, but a number of jealous, ambitious generals are. The president has survived six assassination plots. In the event of Mr. Musharraf's demise, ISI would play a major role in the struggle for succession.
ISI's role in supplying North Korea with nuclear know-how for its missile warheads in return for North Korean missile technology for Pakistan's nuclear delivery vehicles had been a closely guarded state secret. So when the New York Times broke the story, it was yet another awkward pause in the make-believe world of a Pakistani-U.S. alliance. The chief of the North Korean Air Force has been a frequent visitor to Islamabad since September 11, 2001. He stays at the Marriott Hotel and doesn't even bother to conceal his identity; he wears his uniform.
We still do not have a credible plan for a way to cause a big shift in the attitudes of the Pakistani people to make them find Islamism less appealing. Assassination plots could easily take out Musharraf in Pakistan and Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. Pakistan could degenerate into a civil war. Not only does it have nukes but it also has helped North Korea get them and may have helped other states in their WMD development projects.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2002 November 13 12:26 PM Axis Of Evil|