The problem the Republican Party faces is that neither Hispanics nor Blacks are showing any signs of shifting toward the Republicans. So in the longer run demographic trends are still running in favor of the Democratic Party in spite of a temporary surge toward the Republicans among whites due to increased feelings of patriotism and worries about national security:
If the GOP can attract new supporters with policies rooted in this new culture of sober patriotism, it can become the new natural party of government. But can it? The Democrats have been pinning their hopes for an emerging Democratic majority on the calculation that the growing number of Latino, Asian and black voters who disproportionately support the Democrats would over time (and as a result of immigration) outnumber the Republican-leaning white vote. And that calculation has not been disproved by last Tuesday's election.
On the contrary, the key to the GOP's victory was differential turnout--Republicans turned out in greater numbers than Democrats. In ethnic terms that happened because the minority share of the vote fell sharply, while the white vote increased (and the GOP's share of the white vote increased as well). There was very little sign of minority voters crossing over to the GOP in large numbers.
Update: If you want to see just how much this latest election depended on a larger white vote see Steve Sailer's latest analyses for UPI on how whites won the election for the GOP:
Gallup pointed out, "By far the largest divide among American voters continues to be racial." Nationally, minorities favored the Democrats by an overwhelming margin. This Gallup survey pegged Democratic candidates for Congress as winning 82-14 among nonwhites. Similarly, the Pew Poll, which incorrectly predicted a narrow Democratic victory, saw 85 percent of minorities favoring the Democrats.
While the sample sizes are much too small to be definitive, these two surveys imply that Republicans may have done even worse among minority voters than they did in the 2000 Presidential election, when VNS found the GOP winning around 21% of the nonwhite vote.
Yet, ultimately, that mattered less than many pundits had expected because whites turned out relatively heavily, and they appear to have voted more strongly for Republicans than in recent elections. Gallup discovered that right before the election whites favored the Republicans by a 20-point margin: 58 percent to 38 percent.
There is little to show for Bush's vaunted outreach to Hispanics when looking at assorted minority voting patterns:
In 2000, VNS reported that Bush won 35 percent of the national Hispanic vote. In several of the states for which there is data for this year, the GOP Hispanic vote share couldn't climb out of the 20s. The L.A. Times measured Simon as winning 24 percent of the California Hispanic vote, barely up from 1998 Republican candidate Dan Lungren's 23 percent. According to two major 2000 exit polls (VNS and L.A. Times), Bush had garnered either 23 or 29 percent of Golden State Latinos.
In Colorado, according to Fox, Republican Senator Wayne Allard carried 29 percent of Hispanics versus 25 percent for Bush (VNS) in that state in 2000.
In New Jersey, the GOP share fell from 35 (VNS) to 26 (Fox) over the last two years.
In Massachusetts, a lesser-known University of Massachusetts at Boston exit poll of 1,200 Hispanic voters claimed that 87 percent favored the Democratic candidate for governor, and 92 percent opposed Question 2 calling for the elimination of bilingual education.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2002 November 12 05:33 PM|