In a Washington Post opinion piece former Bush Sr Secretary of State James A. Baker III calls the 1994 Framework Agreement between the US and North Korea one of accommodation, compromise and appeasement:
How "natural and foreseeable" was it that the Framework Agreement would produce a nuclear-armed North Korea, not "an end to the threat of nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula"? Consider this: Subject only to editing to change tenses and time references, omit extraneous material and provide logical transitions, the preceding four paragraphs are word-for-word from my diplomatic memoir, "The Politics of Diplomacy," written in 1994, immediately after the Framework Agreement was signed, and published in 1995.
This may seem terribly old fashioned but I think we should look for advice from people who have a track record of accurate predictions. The folks who got it wrong the last time (eg the editorial board of the New York Times) will in all likelihood get it wrong the next time. Baker (and, to be fair, quite a few others mostly on the political Right) saw in advance how the accord with North Korea would turn out. Those who saw the bad outcome ought to be at the top of the list of people we listen to for advice about how to proceed from here.
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2002 October 23 11:59 AM Axis Of Evil|