UPI Analyst Martin Sieff interprets the motive of the North Korean admission that it has an active nuclear weapons program as being to deter an eventual US attack on the North Korean regime. In this interpretation the hope of the North Koreans is that the US will conclude that North Korea may already have nukes and hence the US will decide it is too risky to attack North Korea:
The North Koreans have taken a page out of Israel's deterrence playbook. And like Israel, they did so because they were scared.
North Korean officials have made the bombshell admission to U.S. diplomats that their country for years has continued a nuclear development program in secret, even though this was in clear contravention of its 1994 commitments to the United States, U.S. and South Korean officials told UPI early Thursday.
There are problems with this theory. The first is that as Donald Rumsfeld already stated the US government already thinks North Korea has nukes. The next problem with this theory is that the North Koreans did not admit to their continued active development of nuclear weapons until the US presented them with (still classified for the rest of us) proof that the North Korean regime was in fact doing so. The bottom line here is that North Korea's continued development of nuclear weapons is not a reaction to the Bush Administration's pronouncements against the North Korean regime. The North Korean effort predates Bush's presidency.
Keep in mind that the US sees North Korea as a problem for more reasons than just what North Korea might do with missiles and nuclear weapons itself. North Korea's eagerness to make money as a secondary proliferator is at least as great a problem as North Korea's own possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and delivery vehicles for WMD.
(Martin Sieff link from Steve Sailer's site)
|Share |||By Randall Parker at 2002 October 17 07:52 PM Axis Of Evil|