2002 September 27 Friday
Stratfor: Jordan, part of Iraq to merge?

There are attractive aspects to this proposal for Jordan, Israel, the US, and even for Turkey. See the diagram here:

The administration may be looking into the proposal because the current goal of replacing Saddam Hussein with a pro-U.S. Iraqi government still would not guarantee long-term U.S. control over the territory and its oil. First, it may become too hard for a new government in Baghdad to effectively control the whole country, even with U.S. troop support. An example is Afghanistan, in which the government of President Hamid Karzai still controls only the capital.

Second, the new government's attempts to establish control over all of Iraq may well lead to a civil war between Sunni, Shia and Kurdish ethnic groups, with U.S. troops caught in the middle. The fiercest fighting could be expected for control over the oil facilities.

A potential part of this proposal is the merger of the Shia region of Iraq with Kuwait. According to the CIA World Factbook Kuwait is currently 45% Sunni and 40% Shia. So the addition of a Shia area would make the Sunnis (is the ruling family Sunni?) a minority in the new entity. Also, would the Shia part bring any oil fields with it? If not then the Kuwaitis would gain a new financial burden without any compensating economic benefit.

Share |      By Randall Parker at 2002 September 27 04:07 PM 


Comments
razib said at September 27, 2002 7:32 PM:

randall,

the ruling family is sunni. also-this might not take into account the foreign workers that do all the productive labor, most of whom are probably sunni as well (the south asians), though the filipinos would be catholic mostly, with some muslims from the south.


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